The Denver Broncos are finally hoping to get their first win of the season when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 4. Kickoff is at 4:25 EST on Sunday, September 29 at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. Fans in large sections of the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones will be able to watch the game on CBS.
Oddsmakers list the Broncos as 3-point favorites at home with an over/under of 38 points. Be sure to check out a full list of this week’s NFL betting odds.
The Broncos began the season with renewed hope under new head coach Vic Fangio. But after losses to the Raiders, Bears, and Packers, Denver is in danger of experiencing another lost season. The offense has been stagnant while the defense hasn’t been able to overcome a lack of support.
More importantly, the Broncos are running out of time to turn things around after starting 0-3. The silver lining is they play three of their next four games and four of their next six games at home. But they still have plenty of tough games during that stretch and have no time to waste if they want to be playing meaningful games in November and December.
The Jaguars also saw their season going differently than it’s unfolded through the first three weeks. It started when they lost quarterback Nick Foles to injury early in Week 1, forcing them to turn to rookie Gardner Minshew. However, Minshew has handled himself well, leading the team to a win against the Titans last week and nearly stealing a game from the Texans in Week 2.
Nevertheless, the Jags sit at 1-2 and are on the road in three of their next four games. Despite a lot of road games over the next month, Jacksonville’s schedule looks rather manageable on paper. Of course, a loss on Sunday will have the Jaguars playing catch up in the AFC South the rest of the season, which is something they’d like to avoid.
While the Broncos need this game and should get an edge from playing at home, their offense doesn’t produce enough points to make me think they’ll cover the 3-point spread, even if they win. Honestly, I’m a little surprised the Jaguars aren’t slight favorites in this game. If this were a straight-up PK, I’d probably take Jacksonville, so I have no problem taking the Jags and the points on the road.
The Broncos have so many problems that I almost don’t know where to begin. I suppose it starts up front with an offensive line that has been dreadful. The aging Joe Flacco has already been sacked 11 times in three games. When Flacco isn’t getting sacked, the Broncos are having their drives stalled by holding penalties from left tackle Garrett Boles. The second-year pro has complained that referees are unfairly targeting him on penalties. Whether that’s true or not, his bad reputation is causing problems for the Denver offense. Flacco hasn’t played poorly, but the Denver rushing attack is average at best and without adequate protection, the veteran quarterback is having a hard time with his new team.
Denver’s offensive line woes aren’t likely to get any better this week against Jacksonville’s defensive line. The Jags racked up nine sacks last week against the Titans and will be licking their chops to face Denver’s offensive line this week. Barring a sudden turnaround from the Broncos, it’s likely that they’ll continue to have problems moving the ball. They haven’t scored more than 16 points in a game all season, and I’d be surprised if they’re able to match or exceed that number against Jacksonville.
The Broncos are also having some problems on defense. To be fair, that unit has done enough to keep Denver in games. However, the Broncos have yet to record a sack or force a turnover through three games. In theory, Von Miller and Bradley Chubb should be one of the best pass-rushing duos in the NFL. The fact that neither has a sack this season is one of the biggest shocks of the NFL season thus far. On top of that, the failure of the Denver defense to create any takeaways makes the turnovers committed by the Denver offense all the more damaging to the team’s chances of winning games.
Meanwhile, Minshew has been remarkably efficient during his first two NFL starts. The Jaguars are still waiting to get more out of Leonard Fournette and their running game. But Minshew is completing 74% of his passes with five touchdowns to just one interception. He’s had an immediate comfort level with wide receivers Chris Conley and DJ Chark, which is making the Jacksonville offense viable. By no means are the Jags lighting the world on fire, but Minshew and company are doing enough to give Jacksonville a chance.
Odds are, this game is going to be a low-scoring defensive slugfest. Even on the road, I have a little more faith in the Jacksonville offense to put points on the board, especially since Denver’s offensive line problems are likely to be exposed by the Jags defense. I like the Jaguars to win this game as road underdogs.