The Philadelphia Eagles put their NFL best 7-1 record on the line this weekend against an angry Denver Broncos team. Philly is looking to win their 7th straight game, while Denver is hoping to find some magic in the new starting quarterback Brock Osweiler. Can the Broncos play better on offense and upset the Eagles or will Philly keep soaring? Kickoff inside Lincoln Financial Field is at 1 PM ET.
Since 2005, Denver is 2-1 against Philadelphia. These two teams last played in 2013 and the Broncos won big 42-20. Each team has won at home since 1992.
Denver (3-4) is a desperate team looking to get back to .500 on the season. They have lost 3 straight games due to terrible quarterback play by the benched Trevor Siemian. Additionally, the Broncos have been without one of their top playmakers – wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders who has a chance to return this week. If Sanders can return and Osweiler can play better than Siemian did, then the Broncos have a chance.
Philadelphia (7-1) just keeps rolling along. They destroyed the 49ers last weekend and have become the top team in the NFC, possibly the NFL. Their only loss on the season was at KC in week 2. This weekend, the Eagles will be at home where they are 4-0 on the season and they have a solid defense of their own. Can Philly win their 7th straight game?
The spread opened with the Eagles favored by 7 points. It has grown slightly to 7.5 points. The Over/Under opened at 44 points and has gone down to 43 total points.
Until we see Brock Osweiler actually play good football, I can’t pick Denver to win a game or cover a spread. Their offense was horrible with Siemian’s decline and Osweiler isn’t the picture of confidence. Sure, in 2015 he went 5-2 and helped get the Broncos to the playoffs. But, he regressed in 2016 and couldn’t even crack the starting spot in Cleveland during the preseason. Just because he played well 2 years ago in Denver, doesn’t mean he can do it again. Don’t get me wrong, I’m actually rooting for the guy as I enjoy a good redemption story. But, I’m not going to put my money on the line for a redemption story.
Denver’s defense is the only reason this team isn’t winless on the season. They’re #1 in the league in yards allowed at just 273 ypg. They’re #2 in the league against the run at 72.9 ypg. However, the Eagles defense is actually #1 against the run at 70.4 ypg and they allow less points per game at 19.5 compared to Denver’s 21 ppg.
I expect both teams to shut down the run. We will have to wait for the newly acquired Jay Ajayi to get rolling along in the running game for Philly because he’s going to have a tough time against Denver. Additionally, both Anderson and Charles will be shut down against Philly’s defense.
So, that leaves us with the quarterbacks. And, I think it’s safe to say that Carson Wentz is better than Brock Osweiler. Wentz has been lighting up the scoreboards with 2,063 passing yards on the season and 19 passing touchdowns to just 5 picks. He’s playing elite level of football and is in the top 5 for major statistical passing categories. I expect Wentz to make more plays this weekend than Osweiler and win the game. Nothing is going to come easy for either QB against these defenses, but Wentz is a better QB than Osweiler and he will outplay him despite Philly’s defense being atrocious against the pass.
Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and they are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games where they are listed as an underdog of 7.5 to 10 points. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Denver is 0-3 on the road, has a new quarterback starting, and is playing against a tough Philly defense. I don’t expect them to beat the team with NFL’s best record and I don’t expect them to even cover this spread. I expect Philly to win this game behind the play of Wentz when it matters the most. Look for Philly to pull away late in the game and win 27-17.