Tennessee’s month long AFC North tour continues this weekend as they host the Cincinnati Bengals. The Titans are 2-0 against their former divisional foes (AFC Central) as they’ve already defeated the Browns and Ravens. However, they aren’t winning by much and it could potentially bite them this weekend. Cincinnati was dismantled last weekend and looks to rebound after a shaky October. Kickoff inside Nissan Stadium is at 1 PM ET.
The Bengals and Titans have not played against each other since 2014 and Cincinnati won that game 33-7. The Bengals have won 4 out of the last 5 games between these two teams and the last 2 games in Tennessee.
Cincinnati (3-5) is coming off a 23-7 loss to the Jaguars, where they looked pitiful. If they’re going to make a run toward the playoffs, it must start this weekend. They are 3 games back of Pittsburgh in the AFC North and have already lost to the Steelers. A Wild Card spot is their best chance at the playoffs unless the Steelers have an epic meltdown and the Bengals win at least 6 of their last 8 games. Cincy is 1-3 on the road and hopes to knock off the Titans this week.
The Titans (5-3) have won 3 straight games and are battling the Jaguars for the top spot in the AFC South division. This battle looks like it will go all season long, so every game becomes even more important for the Titans to win. This game against the Bengals is a winnable one, which is evident by the Titans being favored by 4.5 points. They’ve played in two tight games in a row, where they won each game by a field goal. Tennessee is 3-1 at home and poised for a victory this weekend.
The spread opened with the Bengals getting 3.5 points. It has currently gone up to +4.5 for the Bengals. The Over/Under opened at 40.5 points and has remained unchanged.
Tennessee has won 7 out of their last 8 home games and they look like a much better team than the Bengals. They’ve beaten some good teams over that stretch like last year against the Packers and earlier this season against the Seahawks. Their winning in 2017 has largely been due to the solid effort on the defensive side of the ball.
On the season, the Titans are allowing 24.1 ppg, but during their 3 game winning streak the Titans are allowing 19 ppg. This weekend, Tennessee has a good chance of continuing their newfound defensive success as they face a bad Bengals offense.
Cincinnati’s offense is one of the worst overall offenses in the league and it’s why they are 3-5 and have little chance of making the playoffs. The Bengals are tied for 28th in the league in scoring at 16.1 points per game. They’re also last in total yards per game at 289 ypg, 28th in passing yards at 217 ypg, and last in rushing at 72.3 yards per game. Quarterback Andy Dalton has 8 interceptions to 11 touchdown throws this year and top running back Joe Mixon has only 284 rushing yards in 8 games this season.
Not only do I believe that the Titans will win this game, I also believe that the point total will be 40 points or less. The Bengals average 16.1 ppg and the Titans average 22.6 ppg, which is a few points less than this week’s Over/Under line. The most points Cincy has scored this season is 31 points and that was against Cleveland. In 7 AFC games this year, Cincy is averaging just above 15 ppg. The Titans are averaging 18 ppg over the last 2 weeks and 19 ppg over their last 5 games. Look for this game to be a close one, but low scoring as Tennessee wins 20-16.
For the Bengals, the Under has hit in 9 of their last 12 games and 6 of their last 8 road games. It’s also 5-0 in the Bengals last 5 Week 10 games and 4-0 in the last 4 games between these two teams.