Spring training is underway, and even though the Final Four has yet to be played, it’s time to start thinking about the upcoming MLB season. Last year, I came through for my premium clients on the baseball diamond by delivering my $1,000/game players $12,650 in profits. I preach money management, and I almost never lay over -160 on a favorite.
The problem that some clients have is that I keep my action small, thus there aren’t many bets on a given day, roughly 1-2 per day. But, that’s why I believe I’m going to win over the long term, because it’s quality over quantity. Here are four handicapping tips for the season that will have you winning some money and building your bankroll.
I believe that the best way to win is to single out the best game in the MLB, NBA, and college basketball. This is especially important when betting money lines with professional teams. These players are all talented or else they wouldn’t be in the big leagues so you simply can’t lay -250 with the Yankees against the Royals and expect to win every time as it just doesn’t happen. Find the best bet on the board every day and make that your wager. There are not many amateur gamblers out there who can sustain a long winning streak if they are betting on every game on the board.
I stick to the rule of never laying more than -160. If you think a team is going to win and they are listed at -200, then consider taking the run line instead. Most amateur gamblers start falling in love with these heavy favorites, but there is no quicker way to drain your bankroll. It takes more work and experience to break down the lines on the underdogs, totals, and short favorites, but that is where the money is.
Wait for teams to settle into their own and give pitchers a chance to take the mound a few times before trying to predict their performances. This way you can see some trends starting to develop, and also you’ll notice how the chemistry is between the players on the club. There are still some NBA games to handicap during the month of April and even into May and June, so patience is the key here.
I factor starting pitching into about 40% of my handicapping equation and believe that most people rely way too much on the starter. There are plenty of other factors that determine the winner of the game such as on-base percentage, slugging, depth and ERA of the bullpen, and scheduling.
In conclusion, look for reasons to take the underdogs and short money line favorites as well as totals. It’s important to have more than one sportsbook during the baseball season as you can save real money. Why bet a game at -127 when you can lay -115 somewhere else? That just doesn’t make sense.