NFL experts are used to seeing Super Bowl losers struggle to make the playoffs the following season. What they’re not used to is seeing one of the best offenses in the league suddenly turn as streaky as a naked prankster from the 70s.
The 2017 Atlanta Falcons lost all 4 preseason games. Then they won 3 in a row to begin the new season. Then they lost 3 in a row – but not by scores of 51-50. Heralded QB Matt Ryan has thrown only 7 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions in 6 games. OC Steve Sarkisian, a hero after taking over for a mal-contented Lane Kiffen at Alabama, is facing harsh criticism after taking over for Kyle Shanahan in the transportation capital.
The Dirty Birds are visiting the Jets this Sunday, a mirror image of themselves in many ways. Ridiculed as a likely #1 draft pick franchise in 2018 after losing their first 2, the club has played very competitively from Week 3 to Week 7 and would stand at better than 3-4 were it not for a couple of blown leads.
Odds-makers are liking the Falcons to snap their losing streak, but is that merely the echoes of 2016?
Who: Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets
When: Sunday, October 29th, 1 PM EST
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Lines: ATL (-6) at NYJ (+6) / O/U Total: (44.5)
Losing big to the Patriots is a low-point in the season. The Falcons have averaged less than 14 points per game during their slide, and are giving the usual pabulum to the press about communicating and executing on the field. Their bigger problem might be an obsession with returning Matt Ryan to his glory days (last autumn to be exact).
To wit, HC Dan Quinn has reportedly instructed Sarkisian to “commit” to the ground game – by calling as many as 25-30 hand-offs per 4 quarters. Wow. 25 rushes against 35-40 passes, that’s a big commitment there Dan. Atlanta is likely to keep getting beaten at the LOS unless they actually commit to establishing their OL downhill, then allowing Ryan to flourish in play-action.
New York is not an ideal opponent for a finesse team right now, especially on the road. QB Josh McCown is playing better than anyone expected, but the defense must improve their pass rush.
The pedestrian edge-rush of the opposing front-7 could save the Falcons this week. But the team is slumping badly, and bookies are giving them too much credit to assume they’ll break out in unfriendly confines. If you played this game 10 times, the Jets would win at least 3-4 SU and many would come down to the last seconds. That puts value on the underdog to cover.
Take the Jets and (+6) points.