The No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide hit the road on Saturday, October 15th to take on the No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers in one of the most anticipated matchups of Week 7. The Crimson Tide have won nine straight meetings in this series, including a 19-14 home victory last year as 14.5-point favorites.
Alabama (6-0, 3-0 SEC) beat Arkansas 49-30 on the road last week to remain unbeaten. The Crimson Tide forced five turnovers, including two that were returned for a touchdown in the win.
Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC) suffered its first loss of the season last week in a 38-45 (OT) setback at Texas A&M. The Volunteers did themselves in by committing seven turnovers in the loss.
Kickoff inside Neyland Stadium is set for 3:30 EST Saturday afternoon with CBS providing the television coverage. If you are looking to wager against the Week 7 odds, you’ll find Alabama as a 13-point favorite at Tennessee with a total set of 57 points.
For starters, the Game of the Year line released before the season was Tennessee -1. Now it’s Alabama -13. That’s a ridiculous 14-point swing and the reason I believe there’s value with the Volunteers as home underdogs here.
Coming into the season, Alabama was expected to win the SEC West, while Tennessee was expected to win the SEC East. Nothing has changed as Alabama is 6-0 and taking care of business, while Tennessee is 5-1 with its only loss coming on the road in overtime against Texas A&M.
And I would argue that Tennessee outplayed Texas A&M last week and should have won. The Vols actually outgained the Aggies by 92 yards and racked up a whopping 684 yards of total offense. You won’t find many teams that lose with 600-plus yards, but the Vols shot themselves in the foot with seven turnovers.
Alabama beat Arkansas 49-30 on the road last week, but that game was closer than the final score. The Crimson Tide only outgained the Razorbacks by 44 yards. They forced five turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns, which proved to be the difference. In fact, the Crimson Tide have benefited from non-offensive touchdowns all season.
For starters, the Game of the Year line released before the season was Tennessee -1. Now it’s Alabama -13. That’s a ridiculous 14-point swing.
Tennessee ended an 11-game losing streak to Florida a few weeks back with a 38-28 victory. Now it will be motivated to end a 9-game losing streak to Alabama, and this will be its best opportunity against as this is best team Tennessee has had in quite some time.
Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that Tennessee had Alabama on the ropes last year and let them off the hook. The Vols had a 14-13 lead until the Crimson Tide scored with 2:24 remaining to win 19-14. The Vols were 14.5-point road underdogs in that game, and now they’re 13-point home dogs in the rematch. That fact alone shows you there is value here as well.
Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TENNESSEE) – in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 156-90 (63.4%) ATS since 1992. Alabama is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games when the total is between 56.5 and 63 points.
The Volunteers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. They have stepped up in their biggest games this season, beating VA Tech, Florida and Georgia, and covering as 8-point road dog at Texas A&M in a game they should have won.
Be sure to take a look at more free college football picks from all of our experts here at Betfirm. It’s also worth checking out my home page to see what premium picks I have in store on the NCAA gridiron this week.