The Western Michigan Broncos, coming off a solid season, open their 2016 schedule on the road against the Northwestern Wildcats Saturday afternoon. This one kicks off at 12:00 pm ET from Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois. The game is televised nationally on ESPNU. The current odds for the contest have Northwestern as a 4.5 point favorite with the over/under set at 51.5 points.
Western Michigan put together a second straight 8-5 campaign on the board under coach P.J. Fleck in 2015. The Broncos recorded their first ever bowl victory by downing Middle Tennessee 45-31 in the Bahamas Bowl. Northwestern rebounded from back to back 5-7 seasons to finish 10-3 in 2015. The Wildcats were clobbered in the Outback Bowl, 45-6, by Tennessee to end their season with an emphatic thud.
These two programs have one previous meeting on the books. Northwestern picked up a 38-17 victory at home in 2013.
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Western Michigan brings back eight starters on the offensive side of the ball from a team that averaged 490.8 yards per game last season. The Broncos were 26th in the country in scoring offense as they put up 36 points a game. Zach Terrell is back to run the show after a terrific 2015 season. He hit 67 percent of his throws for 3,522 yards with 29 touchdown passes against nine picks. Western Michigan is solid running the ball as well; they averaged 203.7 yards a game and five yards per carry last year. Speedy Jamauri Bogan ran for 1,051 yards and 16 scores. When the Broncos needed tough yards, banger Jarvion Franklin, the power back, rumbled for 735 yards and five touchdowns.
The Broncos bring back one of the nation’s top receivers in Corey Davis. While he was part of a prolific duo last year, Davis becomes the de facto number one receiver this year with Daniel Braverman (108 grabs) on to the NFL. Davis was no slouch as he corralled 89 passes for 1,429 yards and a dozen touchdowns. He has good size at 6’3, 225 and the speed to get vertical and stretch defenses. Davis automatically makes players around him that much better. If the defense can improve from last year’s ranking of 81st in scoring defense (28.3 points per game), Fleck has the team on the precipice of something big. The Broncos’ aggressive secondary can’t get burned as often as it did in 2015 for that to happen.
Northwestern put up double digit victories a year ago but a lot of it seemed to be smoke and mirrors. Having a stingy defense to lead the way is all well and good but there has to be some sort of offensive support. Northwestern was abysmal offensively in 2015. The Wildcats were 114th in scoring offense by putting up a meager 19.5 points a game last season. Northwestern ranked 120th in passing offense with 138.5 yards a game. Some of that can be chalked up to a freshman quarterback in Clayton Thorson playing in the Big Ten but the fact remains there is plenty of work to be done.
The Wildcats were very good on the defensive side of things but now has only five starters returning from last season’s unit. While one of them is senior All-American Anthony Walker, there are plenty of holes to be patched on Pat Fitzgerald’s defense. The Wildcats held their opposition to 318.9 yards per contest a year ago, including 126 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry on the ground. The loss of Deonte Gibson (team high nine sacks) from the pass rush is a major blow. Northwestern has to find some way to replace his production to get pressure, especially on a QB like Terrell. Matthew Harris (team high four interceptions) likely draws the matchup against Davis. If he’s on an island, the pass rush becomes even more important.
Northwestern was 5-0 in games decided by seven points or less last year. You can’t rely on that kind of success year in and year out in close games. Western Michigan has the weapons and the confidence to succeed. Taking the points seems the way to go.
Western Michigan is 6-1 ATS in their last seven in September, 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road and 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Northwestern is 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. MAC opponents.