Toledo Central Michigan Odds

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The Toledo Rockets hit the road on Tuesday, November 10 to take on the Central Michigan Chippewas in a key MAC showdown. Both teams are 4-1 within the West division and trying to keep pace with Western Michigan. The Rockets have won five straight meetings in the series, including a 42-28 home victory last year.

Toledo (7-1, 4-1 MAC) is coming off a tough 27-32 home loss to Northern Illinois. It looked like this would be the year that the Rockets finally got over the NIU hurdle, but it wasn’t to be as they once again choked in the fourth quarter. They were outscored 13-3 in the final period by the Huskies.

Central Michigan (5-4, 4-1 MAC) won its third straight game with a 14-6 triumph at Akron as 3-point favorites last time out. The Chippewas held the Zips to just 277 yards of total offense in one of their best defensive performances of the season.

Kickoff inside Kelly/Shorts Stadium is scheduled for 8:00 EST Tuesday night with ESPN 2 providing the television coverage. If you are looking to wager on this game, you’ll find Toledo as a 4-point favorite over Central Michigan with a total set of 52.5 points.

My Early Lean: Central Michigan +4

The Chippewas have been underrated all season and they are again here as 4-point home underdogs to the Rockets. They come in with an impressive 5-4 record when you consider how tough their schedule has been, which includes a tremendous 8-1 record against the spread. That right there just shows how undervalued this team has been all season.

I like the fact that the Chippewas have extra time to prepare for this game. They last played on October 31, while Toledo played last Tuesday on November 3. The Rockets suffered a devastating 27-32 loss to Northern Illinois that is likely going to keep them out of the MAC Title game. I look for them to suffer a hangover effect from that defeat and to not put their best foot forward this week.

I like the fact that the Chippewas have extra time to prepare for this game. They last played on October 31, while Toledo played last Tuesday on November 3.

Central Michigan’s four losses have come against four of the better teams in the country in Oklahoma State (13-24) as 21-point dogs, Syracuse (27-30) as 8-point dogs, Michigan State (10-30) as 25.5-point dogs and Western Michigan (39-41) as 5-point dogs. Three of those four losses came on the road. They actually outgained Western Michigan by five yards, Michigan State by 16 yards, and Syracuse by 194 yards. They were only outgained by 77 yards by Oklahoma State, which is 9-0 and a playoff contender. Those results just show what the Chippewas are capable of.

Central Michigan is 3-0 in its last three home games with double-digit wins over Monmouth (31-10), Northern Illinois (29-19) and Buffalo (51-14). So, the Rockets and Chippewas have a common opponent in Northern Illinois. Both of them played the Huskies at home with the Chippewas winning by 10 and the Rockets losing by 5.

I just simply believe that Toledo is one of the most overrated teams in the country. That’s why I faded the Rockets last week as 7.5-point favorites over Northern Illinois. They were getting too much credit for their wins over Arkansas and Iowa State earlier this season. They shouldn’t have won either of those games as they were outgained by 197 yards by the Razorbacks and by 172 yards by the Cyclones. I believe they’re still getting too much credit for their 7-1 record and those two wins.

Central Michigan has one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Cooper Rush, who is completing 69.0 percent of his passes for 2,626 yards with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He has put up those numbers against a much tougher schedule than Toledo has had to face this season. This defense is also underrated. The Chippewas are only giving up 21.7 points, 318 yards per game and 5.0 per play against opposing offenses that average 29.1 points, 384 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) – off an upset loss as a favorite against opponent off a road win are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1992. The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday game. The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Central Michigan is 44-20-2 ATS in its last 66 games following an ATS win.

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