The No. 22 Texas Longhorns hit the road on Saturday, October 1st to take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a Big 12 battle. Shockingly, the road team has won seven straight meetings in this series, including a 30-27 victory for the Cowboys last year.
Oklahoma State (2-2, 0-1 Big 12) is coming off a tough 24-35 loss at Baylor last week. The Cowboys were going in for the lead late, but fumbled near the goal line, and that turnover in the 4th quarter really sealed their fate. They committed four turnovers in the game.
Texas (2-1) had last week off following a 43-50 road loss at California back in Week 3. The Longhorns gave up 507 total yards to the Golden Bears, including 396 passing yards and four touchdowns to quarterback Davis Webb.
Kickoff inside Boone Pickens Stadium is set for 12:00 EST Saturday afternoon with ABC providing the television coverage. Taking a look at the Las Vegas odds, I spot Oklahoma State as a 2.5-point favorite over Texas with a total set of 71.5 points.
My free NCAA football picks for this game go on Texas +2.5. For starters, the Longhorns have had two full weeks to prepare for the Cowboys, which is going to be a huge advantage for them in this game.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is coming off a hard-fought 34-45 loss at Baylor last week. I question how much the Cowboys have left in the tank after three straight games that went down to the wire. They lost 27-30 to Central Michigan in Week 2 before coming back to beat Pittsburgh 45-38 in Week 3 after a two-hour weather delay.
When you look at the numbers, it’s pretty easy to see that the Longhorns are the superior team even without this rest advantage. They have outgained each of their first three opponents, including Notre Dame and Cal, which are no pushovers.
The Longhorns have a new high-powered offense that is putting up 44.7 points and 500.3 yards per game. And the defense hasn’t been as bad as advertised as the Longhorns are giving up 386 yards per game and 5.3 per play against opponents that averaging 454 yards per game and 6.2 per play, so they are holding them to 68 yards per game and 0.9 per play less than their season averages.
Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series. In fact, the road team is a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. The road team has covered nine straight meetings.
The team with the poor defense is the Cowboys, who are giving up 417.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play against teams that are only averaging 410 yards per game 5.7 per play. So, this is a below-average defense the Cowboys are sporting.
Texas got good news when it was announced Shane Buechele would play this week after being forced out of the Cal game with a chest injury. The two weeks off have certainly helped him, and he’s very important considering he’s completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 720 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 8.4 yards per attempt through three games.
Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series. In fact, the road team is a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. The road team has covered nine straight meetings. I look for this trend to continue, especially with the Longhorns having that rest advantage.
Charlie Strong is 15-2 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached. Strong is 8-0 ATS in road games after a game where his team forced no turnovers in all games he has coached. The Longhorns are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 7 points or less.