The New Mexico State Aggies (0-4, 0-1) will be heading into a tough environment as they face the #14 Ole Miss Rebels (4-1, 2-1) in non-conference play Saturday afternoon. This will be the first ever meeting between the two programs.
New Mexico State held a 29-14 edge in the third quarter against in-state rival New Mexico but allowed the final 24 points to fall 38-29 and remain winless. Ole Miss found themselves absolutely pummeled 38-10 by then-#25 Florida last Saturday on the road. Kickoff for this contest is scheduled for 12:00 pm ET from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi and will be televised nationally on the SEC Network. Ole Miss is currently a 45 point favorite with the over/under set at 66.5 points in this contest.
New Mexico State did a decent job offensively though they were outgained in the contest 446-416 by the Lobos. The Aggies were hurt by three turnovers: one was returned for a touchdown and New Mexico had two touchdown drives that started on the Aggies side of the field. Throw in a safety that the Aggies allowed and they had their fair share of issues. New Mexico State had a pair of excellent drive starts, taking over at the Lobos 22 and 33 yard line; they ended up with just field goals on both of those drives.
The Aggies put up decent offensive numbers as they average 243.5 yards per game through the air and 178 a contest on the ground. New Mexico State is averaging 30 points a game; the problem is that they’re allowing 45.8 per contest, which is 126th in the nation. The Aggies have thrown the ball 140 times and run it 119 so far; Tyler Rogers is completing just 53.4 percent of his throws for 974 yards with seven touchdowns and three picks. New Mexico State should run the ball more seeing that they average six yards per carry; Larry Rose III leads the team by far with 71 carries for 579 yards and six scores. Tyrain Taylor is the top receiver with 17 grabs for 308 yards and three scores; Rogers can also look for Teldrick Morgan (16 catches, 264 yards, 2 TD) and Gregory Hogan (11 receptions, 124 yards, TD) to move the sticks or hit a big play. Kicker Parker Davidson is five of six on field goals but he’s miserable on extra points; he’s misfired on five of 15 attempts this season on the chip shot kick.
Ole Miss was completely outplayed in their loss to Florida; even though they were only outgained 355-328 in the contest, a lot of that production came after the game was well in hand. The Rebels trailed 25-0 at the half as their defense failed to stop freshman quarterback Will Grier, who threw four touchdown passes before the intermission. Ole Miss also turned the ball over four times in the game and in general looked nothing like the team that handled Alabama the week before.
The Rebels are 16th in the nation as they average 327.4 yards per game through the air while they put up 173 yards per game on the ground. Ole Miss is tied for 8th in the nation with a 46 point per game average while they are allowing 23 points per contest. Chad Kelly has done a great job running the Rebels’ offense as he has hit 97 of 155 passes for 1,478 yards with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. The run game needs some work: Jaylen Walton leads the team with 51 carries for 292 yards and three scores; Jordan Wilkins (33 carries, 157 yards, TD) and Eugene Brazley (11 carries, 113 yards, 2 TD) also have cracked the century mark for rushing yards on the year while Kelly contributes 97. Laquon Treadwell has bounced back from last season’s devastating leg injury suffered against Auburn as he’s caught a team high 27 passes for 374 yards and a score. Cody Core is a good target as well; he’s reeled in 16 passes for 335 yards and three scores while Quincy Adeboyejo has 12 grabs for 255 yards and a team high five scores. Gary Wunderlich has booted all 25 extra points and seven of nine field goals this season.
The Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last five after running for less than 100 yards, 23-7-1 ATS in their last 31 non-conference games, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 in October and 6-2 ATS in their last eight against the Sun Belt. New Mexico State is 5-17 ATS in their last 22 on the road, 1-5 ATS in their last six on fieldturf, 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after an ATS win, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 overall and 0-6 ATS in their last six against the SEC.
This is a bad situation for New Mexico State. They’re on the road against a ranked Power Five opponent. Throw in that their opponent has a massive chip on their shoulder after getting thrashed in a conference game last week and things will get ugly in a hurry. Don’t be surprised to see Ole Miss hang 60 or 70 in this game as they win going away.