The Missouri Tigers head on the road to the bayou as they face the LSU Tigers, who are in a state of transition. The SEC crossover matchup kicks off from Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana at 7:30 pm ET. National TV coverage is provided by the SEC Network. The current odds show LSU as a 13 point favorite in this contest with the over/under set at 54.5 points.
Missouri evened their record with an emphatic 79-0 demolition of FCS school Delaware State last week. LSU dropped an 18-13 road decision to Auburn in another battle of Tigers in the SEC last week. This is the second all-time meeting between the schools and the first since Missouri joined the SEC. Missouri took a 20-15 win back in 1978 in Memphis in the only other meeting.
Missouri brings the SEC’s top offense to the table in this one. They average 569.5 yards and 44.5 points per game this season. It’s important to note that Missouri scored 140 points in their two wins and 38 in their two losses. The Tigers are 4th in the nation with 391.3 passing yards per game as Drew Lock really stepped up his game. Missouri does have to contend with a LSU defense that is third in the conference, allowing 341.3 yards per game. LSU is solid against the pass: opposing QBs complete 58.1 percent of their throws for 225.3 yards per game. The LSU defense has 14 sacks and six takeaways but can they shut down Lock and his top target, J’Mon Moore? He’s tied with Ole Miss’s Evan Engram with a conference leading 26 grabs. Missouri’s offensive line has allowed just one sack so far.
LSU, after last week’s loss, made some changes. The Les Miles era is over. Ed Orgeron, who was 6-2 as USC’s interim coach in 2013, takes over on an interim basis here. LSU averages 339.5 yards of offense per game and stand 119th in passing offense with 147.8 yards a game. The Tigers are 111th in the FBS with 21 points a game. When a former Purdue quarterback is starting for you, it means the position leaves something to be desired. Danny Etling (40 of 71, 433 yards, 3 TD, INT) took the starting job from Brandon Harris (13 of 25, 139 yards, TD, 2 INT) but neither man impressed.
Leonard Fournette leads the team with 67 carries for 386 yards and two scores. He leads the SEC with a 128.7 yard per game average on the ground. Derrius Grice is a nice second back with 29 carries for 239 yards plus a score. Travin Dural leads the Tigers with 14 catches totaling 142 yards and a score. Malachi Dupre (11 grabs, 99 yards) and Fournette (nine catches, 69 yards) are safety valves. Orgeron has to find a way to throw the ball downfield with success. It’s something Miles couldn’t or wouldn’t do in his game plan. That allows teams to load up in an effort to stop Fournette as he’s their lone reliable offensive weapon. Missouri’s defense is effective at halting the run: opponents average 3.3 yards per carry.
Orgeron may find the Holy Grail in the bayou: a quarterback that can run the vertical passing game to open up lanes for Fournette. At this point, he’ll take a guy that can run ANY passing game that isn’t dump-offs and screens. LSU is a team with a tattered psyche right now and the next couple weeks will determine the fate of their season. Missouri can throw the ball and move the sticks. Giving up two touchdowns to a team that can move the ball through the air when you just fired your coach is too risky for me. Take the points and the visitors. For additional picks from this week, make sure you take a look around the site!
Missouri is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. The Tigers are also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. LSU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.