Yellow Jacket fans are getting restless and Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson understands. “I don’t blame ’em,” Johnson said after last weekend’s 49-21 beat down by the Clemson Tigers. “I’d (gripe), too, the way we’re playing.” 8 fumbles (4 of them by QB TaQuon Marshall) make it tough to win against any team, much less a Clemson Tigers unit many consider a front-runner to reach the College Football Playoff.
Some call Johnson’s playbook gimmicky, college football purists generally love it. No matter where you stand, one thing is for sure – when the Flexbone (don’t call me triple option) style of offense isn’t working people start to question whether or not it’s still a viable option (excuse the pun) in today’s game.
But the verdict of the college football betting public has been handed down – and it’s surprisingly with the ‘Jackets and their coach, who opened at (-25.5) but are now more than 4-TD favorites against Bowling Green.
Who: Bowling Green Falcons at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
When: Saturday, September 29th, Noon EST
Where: Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Lines: BGSU (+28.5) at GT (-28.5) / O/U Total: (66)
The Jackets mustered only 203 total yards against Clemson and, while it’s worth noting that Clemson boasts a defensive line that is arguably the best in the country, that total is not a recipe for success when you run an offense that relies heavily on ball control.
Marshall was 1 of 6 through the air for 29 yards. The paltry number is alarming for Tech fans who have watched their team fall to 1-3 to start the season and wondered if the lack of a passing threat is dooming the run game. Marshall can run, but has fumble-itis, and has completed only 43.9% of his passes with 2 TDs and 4 interceptions.
Passing efficiency is vital for teams that don’t throw much. When you pass, you need to connect. Marshall is simply not getting the job done thus far.
Meanwhile, the defense can’t get its act together according to the Atlanta-Journal Constitution:
As Johnson explained it, some players on the field believed that they were in a dime defense, defensive line coach Jerome Riase was trying to sub out the line and a player who wasn’t supposed to leave the field thought he was being summoned.
As No. 3 Clemson effectively demonstrated in its 49-21 win Saturday, Tech has had enough trouble beating its opponents. Part of the Jackets’ problems thus far is that they’ve gotten in their own way at times with self-inflicted errors that have only made the task of winning games more difficult. Defensive players and Johnson shed light on some of the controllable matters that have not been executed as well as possible.
“We’ve got to do a better job of coaching those things and emphasizing the little things,” he said.
The Bowling Green Falcons have also struggled during the opening quarter of the season, matching Tech’s 1-3 start with losses to Oregon, Maryland, and Miami of Ohio.
Quarterback Jarret Doege has been the one bright spot, completing 65% of his passes for 891 yards with 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and a QBR of 134.3.
But the defense is giving up an average of 40 points per game. The Falcons brought in Carl Pelini this season to overhaul a defense that gave up 38 points per game in 2017. but his unit has failed to show improvement early on.
Bowling Green is 5-20 against FBS opponents over the past 3 seasons so it’s not really that surprising that Georgia Tech is a 28.5 point favorite. It’s just a question as to whether the number is accurate above 28.
For the Falcons to compete, they are going to need a big day from Doege and fellow sophomore Andrew Clair, a former 3-star running back out of Missouri. BGSU carries a fast tempo offense which is something GT struggled against in losing efforts to both Clemson and South Florida.
But it’s all a moot point of the Falcon defense can’t get off the field, at least as far as making an upset bid. Bowling Green ranks dead last in the FBS in rushing yards allowed this season with 1,334. Defending the Flex is not that relate-able to defending regular NCAA zone-blocked offenses. But considering Tech’s offense will have a height and weight advantage and can go all-power when it wants to, it could be a long day for Pelini’s crew.
I’m liking Bowling Green to cover (+28.5), not because the GT offense won’t roll against a MAC school, but because of the hosts’ turnover issues and poor defensive play. I trust the Ramblin’ Wreck to score 40-60 points, but I don’t trust their defense to hold BGSU to under 21.
Georgia Tech tends to score touchdowns and XPs and give up the same, without too many FGs getting in the way. A 28-point win (and an easier-than-it-looks win for the bettor ATS) is a distinct possibility.