No one trolls the media harder than Nick Saban.
On Saturday, the Alabama head coach asked reporters to “look at some of the things we didn’t do so well and write about it.” I’m going to leave that job to somebody else, thank you very much.
Alabama is doing Alabama things, outscoring opponents 215-51 through 3 games (2 against SEC West foes and another Power-5 win vs Louisville). Saban’s defense is always freakishly good, but the play of the offense (53.8 ppg) with QB Tua Tagovailoa under center raises a fair question: is this the best Alabama team ever?
It’s probably too early to ask that question, as they haven’t played a true SEC defensive power yet. I’ll wait until I see them against Auburn, LSU, and potentially a Georgia rematch, but these numbers are remarkable.
College football bookmakers seem to think so, too. My, my, what a wide point spread as the Crimson Tide prepares to host thrash-for-cash mid-major Louisiana (the Program Formerly Known As Louisiana-Lafayette) on Saturday.
Who: Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at Alabama Crimson Tide
When: Saturday, September 29th, 12 PM EST
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuskaloosa, AL
Lines: LA (+48.5) at Alabama (-48.5) / O/U Total: (66)
Clearly, giving Tua all the credit would be shortsighted. Alabama is loaded at every position. It’s safe to say there aren’t many fellow SEC teams that have 5-star recruits red-shirting, sitting on the bench, and switching positions just to see the field
Before a third-and-1 situation, the Crimson Tide loaded up its front, adding tight end Hale Hentges to a wall of five blockers and positioning Irv Smith Jr. at H-back. Josh Jacobs received a handoff, veered right and was immediately met by a pack of Arkansas State defenders. Away from the mass of bodies was sophomore Alex Leatherwood, who had fallen down. By the time he turned back to see what happened, the whistle had blown and Jacobs had suffered a one-yard loss. The failure in that moment wasn’t significant in the larger context, but it was illustrative of Leatherwood’s inconsistent performance at right guard — the position to which he moved in August after beginning fall camp one spot over at tackle.
Two days after that game, center Ross Pierschbacher explained that patience was needed with Leatherwood — a lineman with tremendous talent who is trying to navigate a new role.
“I think with him, it’s just like not getting frustrated,” Pierschbacher said. “He wants to be perfect all the time, and when you move to a position like that, it’s a big move from tackle to guard.
Left tackle Jonah Williams, in charge of protecting Tua’s backside, and running back Damien Harris are both projected 1st round picks in the 2019 NFL draft. The stable of receivers is as deep as ever, with 8 players with over 100 receiving yards or a touchdown reception.
Louisiana is going to need to find some non-conventional ways to move the ball in order to score against Saban’s defense. One thing they might look to exploit is quarterback Andre Nunez running the ball.
While Nunez has only rushed the ball 16 times on the season, he has taken off on a few nice scampers. The Tide have had a propensity of giving up big plays to the QB runner. Last week, Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond had a 54 yard carry against the ‘Bama defense. The week before, Ole Miss QB Jordan Ta’amu had a 21-yard rush. Louisiana should look at ways to go 11-on-11 to get some points on the board.
Saban has a history of simply running weak foes out of the building. Is it fair to criticize him for running up the score? Probably not. Saban will make substitutions by the 3rd and 4th frames of this matchup, but Alabama is so talent-laden that their reserves are still better football players than Louisiana can field.
CFP contenders don’t want a reserve to come in at some point of a critical game when he’s never had experience running a full Alabama playbook. The blowouts give Saban the ability to get players that experience, and he doesn’t take his foot off the gas against Savannah State or anyone.
I enjoy betting on enormous point spreads, but this time my prediction is…no prediction. It’s fun to cheer for your favorite Alabama QB or tailback to get plenty of reps and score more, but what if the team gives up a touchdown? Garbage time is too relaxed and random to count on a 60+ point offense.
Alabama still needs to experience reversion to the mean average, in which they close out cupcakes early but also don’t score on every drive, since the substitutions and experiments cause pre-snap penalties and bad routes. Louisiana won’t move the ball much. I’m thinking it will be a 45-0 type final.
Take the under (66) for a high % thrash-for-cash play.