A matchup of mid-major schools dots the schedule of the first week of the college football season. The Boise State Broncos travel to the bayou as they take on the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns Saturday afternoon. Kickoff for this contest is at 12:00 pm ET from Cajun Field in Lafayette, Louisiana. The game can be seen on ESPN3. Boise State is currently favored by 19 points in this contest with oddsmakers setting the over/under set at 64 points.
Boise State finished 9-4 in the 2015 season. The Broncos ended up with less than 10 wins for just the fourth time in the last 17 seasons. Boise State pummeled Northern Illinois 55-7 in the Poinsettia Bowl. Louisiana-Lafayette was hit hard by graduation after the 2014 season. As a result, the team went from 9-4 in 2014 to just 4-8 last season. That was a major drop-off from four straight 9-4 campaigns and four straight New Orleans Bowl victories from 2011-2014.
These teams meet for just the second time in school history. Boise State rolled to a 34-9 victory on the blue turf in the only previous meeting in 2014.
To take a look at our other picks from the week 1 schedule, click here to get the rundown.
Boise State has 13 starters back from last season’s unit as Bryan Harsin goes into his third year with the program. The third year is when teams tend to make the biggest jump in a new regime; we saw it happen with Southern Miss. The Broncos are loaded on the offensive side of the ball, especially at the skill positions. Brett Rypien is back under center as he looks to build on last year’s All-Mountain West selection. He completed 272 of 428 passes for 3,350 yards with 20 touchdown passes against eight interceptions. If he goes down for any length of time, Ryan Finley (46 of 70, 485 yards, TD, 4 INT) has some experience in the system.
As a team, Boise State ranked 15th in the country in scoring offense by putting up 39.1 points a game. The team averaged 501.3 yards a game and picked up 6.1 yards per play. Boise State can hurt you in the run game as Jeremy McNichols rumbled for 1,337 yards and 20 scores on the ground last season. For good measure, he corralled 51 passes out of the backfield for another 460 yards and six scores. Thomas Sperbeck had a banner year at wide receiver. He pulled in 88 passes for 1,412 yards and eight scores. Chaz Anderson (42 catches, 578 yards, 3 scores) and tight end Jake Roh (33 grabs) are viable options for Rypien to look for as well.
The Broncos have just five starters from last year’s defensive unit. Boise State has to replace its entire defensive line from last season. That puts pressure on Tanner Vallejo to be the leader of the unit. Boise State needs to put forth a full 60 minutes on a weekly basis as that was an issue Harsin identified last season.
Louisiana-Lafayette fell apart down the stretch: after being 4-4, the Ragin’ Cajuns dropped their last four games. Quarterback is a major issue for the team as they had an open competition during the spring. Someone needs to step up and try to jump start an offense that ranked tied for 83rd in scoring offense with 26.4 points a game. Louisiana-Lafayette returns seven starters on the offensive side of the ball. Elijah McGuire, who ran for 1,047 yards and 13 scores last season, is back for his senior year. Al Riles (46 receptions) and Gabe Fuselier (37 grabs) are back for a couple of proven receivers for whoever is under center.
The Ragin’ Cajuns have to develop a pass rush as they totaled only 22 sacks last season. Seven of those sacks were by Dominique Tovell (team leading 79 tackles, 14.5 TFL), who graduated in the spring. That means the Ragin’ Cajuns have to find someone to step up. Louisiana-Lafayette was 91st in the nation in scoring defense by allowing 31.8 points a game. The Ragin’ Cajuns allowed 420.8 yards per game and six yards per play. Louisiana-Lafayette brings back eight starters but if they can’t tighten up, things will be tough again in 2016. The Ragin’ Cajuns self-reported NCAA violations and docked themselves 11 scholarships over the next three years. That takes a toll on depth. Savion Brown Jr. has to lead the secondary and it starts with trying to stop Sperbeck here.
Boise State is 4-0 ATS in their last four on turf and 17-5 ATS in their last 22 against the Sun Belt. Louisiana-Lafayette is 1-4 ATS in their last five at home, 1-4 ATS in their last five on turf and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven overall.