Vegas Betting Preview: Baylor vs Texas Game Line & Spread Predictions

The no. 14 Baylor Bears will try to bounce back from their first loss of the season as they host the Texas Longhorns in an in-state rivalry game. Kickoff is at 3:30 EST on Saturday, November 23 at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas. The game will be televised on FS1.

At home, the Bears are favored by 5.5 points. The over/under for the game is set at 59.5 points. Make sure you check out all of this week’s college football betting odds.

Baylor vs Texas Betting Preview & Vegas Game Odds

Baylor, of course, is fresh off a devastating collapse against Oklahoma last week that cost them their undefeated season. The Bears looked to be in good shape with a 31-10 halftime lead. However, they were shutout in the second half and couldn’t quite prevent the Sooners from coming all of the way back to win.

The good news for the Bears is that their season is far from over. A spot in the College Football Playoff seems like a long shot right now. But Baylor is still in line to get a rematch with Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. However, the Bears could still lose their spot if they lose their final two games of the season, so they can’t afford to dwell on last week’s disappointment.

Texas is the one team that could still catch Baylor a return to the Big 12 title game for the second straight year. If the Longhorns win their two remaining games and Baylor loses both of their games, both would be 6-3 in conference play with Texas owning the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Longhorns would need a little help, but it’s possible if they can beat the Bears this week.

Of course, Texas would settle for any win against any opponent at this point in the season. The Longhorns have lost three of their last five games, including a 23-21 loss to Iowa State last week. This isn’t quite the season Texas fans envisioned for 2019 after Tom Herman appeared to have them moving in the right direction after last year. However, a strong finish to the season, including a win over Baylor, would help put some belief back in the fanbase.

The Longhorns also have a four-game winning streak over Baylor that they’d like to keep intact. Texas has long dominated their Lone Star State little brothers. Baylor has won just five games in this series since 1993. That includes a 23-17 Texas win last year, as well as a 38-7 blowout by the Longhorns the last time they visited Waco.

Free College Football Betting Selection: Texas +5.5

It’s hard not to feel bad for Baylor after blowing that loss to Oklahoma. I also think it’ll be difficult for the Bears to put that loss behind them and get back on track. In fairness, the Longhorns haven’t played well away from home, which is where all three of their Big 12 losses have taken place. However, all four of their losses this year have been by a touchdown or less. That makes me think that Texas will at least beat the spread in this game and possibly continue their winning streak against Baylor.

One thing to remember about Baylor is that they’ve rarely won games in lopsided fashion this year. Four of their six Big 12 wins have come by six points or less, including a couple of games that went to overtime. Even a non-conference win against lowly Rice came with an 8-point margin. I think the Baylor offense has been efficient this season, but they’re not necessarily explosive. Rarely have the Bears been able to go for the kill and put teams away. That obviously wasn’t the case last week, so I can’t assume it’ll be different this week.

Plus, I don’t think Texas is going to go down without a fight any more than Oklahoma did last week. I still have a belief that Sam Ehlinger is capable of willing his team to victory. Obviously, he’s fallen short a few times and had a couple of rough games along the way, particularly on the road. But he’s still in the midst of the best season of his career and has proven that he can carry the Longhorns on his back when he needs to.

I also think the Texas defense has started to play a little better in recent weeks. Ever since that near-loss to Kansas, the Longhorns have started to tighten things up on that side of the ball. If nothing else, they’ve managed to play better against the run.

As much as I like Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewers, the Bears can’t afford to become one-dimensional. Brewer has good receivers and can make clutch plays, but the Baylor offers relies on running backs John Lovett and JaMycal Hasty setting the foundation for everything else. With the way Texas has stopped the run recently, the Baylor offense could have a hard time getting going, especially after 30 scoreless minutes to end the Oklahoma game.

I don’t want to make it sound like I’m selling my stock on Baylor because I still think they’re a good team. However, the Bears are closer to the pack in the Big 12 than their 9-1 record suggests. They’ve played a lot of close games this season and I think their showdown with Texas will be another one. That makes me think that taking the Longhorns and the points is the best option in this game.

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