Auburn Kentucky Odds

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The Auburn Tigers travel to face the Kentucky Wildcats in an SEC non-divisional showdown on Thursday, October 15. The Tigers have won seven of their last eight meetings with the Wildcats, including a 37-34 road win in their most recent showdown in 2010.

Auburn (3-2, 0-2 SEC) is still in search of its first conference victory. After losing to LSU and Mississippi State, the Tigers stepped out of conference and beat San Jose State 35-21 as 21.5-point home favorites last time out on October 3.

Kentucky (4-1, 2-1 SEC) has been one of the biggest surprises in the conference this season. It has early wins over Missouri and South Carolina while only losing to Florida by five points. The Wildcats did need overtime to beat Eastern Kentucky 34-27 last time out on October 3, however.

Kickoff inside Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington is scheduled for 7:00 EST Thursday night with ESPN providing the television coverage. If you are looking to place a wager on this game, you’ll find Auburn as a 2-point favorite at Kentucky.

My Early Lean: Auburn -2

The Auburn Tigers were a popular preseason pick to win the SEC West. I wasn’t one of them on that bandwagon as I believed Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU and Texas A&M were the four best teams in the division. So far, I’ve been proven right. But at the same time, I realize when it’s time to jump on a team once the value is right.

Auburn would probably win the SEC East if it was in that division even with its struggles thus far in 2015. That’s because the East is so weak, and Kentucky isn’t even a top three team in the division. I believe Tennessee, Georgia and Florida are all much better than the Wildcats, and I believe Auburn would be all three of those teams. So, yes I believe that Auburn will win this game over Kentucky as well.

Auburn has played the much more difficult schedule this season, already having to face the likes of Louisville, LSU and Mississippi State. Kentucky is overvalued due to its 4-1 record against an extremely easy schedule. The Wildcats have beaten the likes of Missouri, South Carolina, Eastern Kentucky and Louisiana-Lafayette. They lost to the best team they’ve played in Florida.

Kentucky has been extremely fortunate in close games this year as all five of its games have been decided by 7 points or less. That means the Wildcats could easily be 1-4 instead of 4-1. But the most concerning thing about the Wildcats is that they have played awful against two non-conference opponents that they were expected to roll.

Indeed, they needed overtime to beat Eastern Kentucky 34-27 last time out as 27.5-point favorites. They only outgained Eastern Kentucky by 21 yards in that game. They also only beat Louisiana-Lafayette 40-33 at home as 17-point favorites in the opener. They were actually outgained by 44 yards by the Rajin’ Cajuns. The Wildcats are getting outgained 365.6 to 368.4 on the season, which isn’t the sign of a 4-1 team.

Auburn has simply owned Kentucky through the years. It is 8-0 in its last eight visits to Lexington with its last loss there coming all the way back in 1966. The Wildcats are 1-10 against SEC West opponents since 2010.

Auburn has simply owned Kentucky through the years. It is 8-0 in its last eight visits to Lexington with its last loss there coming all the way back in 1966. The Wildcats are 1-10 against SEC West opponents since 2010.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KENTUCKY) – off a home win, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

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