When Jeff Monken was hired at Army West Point, service academy football connoisseurs knew that the Black Knights would eventually catch up to, and perhaps overtake, the Navy Midshipmen in level of excellence.
But most of us probably imagined it happening more gradually. Instead, Army began beating Navy while not faring nearly as well on a national scale. Then the 2018 season and poof – West Point is roaring and Navy is a sinking ship.
Not to mention Air Force is struggling. Army is now the standard-bearer for the group of 3 rivals.
The college football boards in Las Vegas are ready to give Monken’s team its due with fat minus-lines on point spreads. But bettors aren’t. Army’s current spread opened with the 4-2 Black Knights almost a 2-touchdown favorite and has already shrank to a 1-score margin.
Who: Miami (OH) Redhawks at Army Black Knights
When: Saturday, October 20th, Noon EST
Where: Michie Stadium, West Point, NY
Lines: Miami-OH (+8) at Army (-8) / O/U Total: (46.5)
The Redhawks started the season slowly, the kind of 0-3 start laden with blow-outs that makes you almost start looking ahead to 2019 in September. Now, in mid-October, Miami has won 3 of its past 4 games, a remarkable turnaround that has them sitting in 2nd pace in the MAC East.
Senior QB Gus Ragland deserves a lot of credit for the Redhawks’ turnaround. Ragland had a 2-game stretch early in the season where he failed to record a touchdown; his highest completion percentage in the 0-3 start was 55%. Since Week 3, his completion percentage has not fell below 66.7% and he’s thrown 7 touchdowns to only 1 interception.
In last week’s win against Kent State, the Miami defense held Kent scoreless until the final seconds of play, winning 31-6. The Redhawks sacked Kent QB Woody Barrett 5 times. Miami’s defense is extremely balanced, with 12 different players having recorded a sack on the season and 22 players having recorded a tackle for loss.
Army’s only losses are to Oklahoma (in OT) and 5-1 Duke. Army is running for 313.5 yards per game, the 2nd most in the country. 10 different Knights players have 50 or more rushing yards, led by junior QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr.’s 496 yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground. Despite the Flexbone playbook (and Monken’s) predilection toward the run, the team is actually moving the ball effectively through the air too:
What’s different about Army this year is that Hopkins has made the Black Knights more of a threat through the air. He’s 25-of-51 passing for 551 yards and three TDs with three interceptions. In 13 games last year, Army finished with 361 passing yards, attempting only 65 passes and suffering six interceptions to rank last nationally.
Hopkins offered a glimpse of his potential as a sophomore, etching his name in academy lore by rallying the Black Knights to an improbable win over Temple at Michie Stadium. Army trailed by seven points with 91 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter when Monken replaced Bradshaw with Hopkins, and Hopkins guided the Black Knights on a 14-play, 79-yard scoring drive that included five completions for 67 yards. The last completion was a perfectly thrown 16-yarder to Jermaine Adams in the left corner of the end zone with one second left in regulation, and Blake Wilson kicked a short field goal in the first overtime for a dramatic 31-28 victory.
Hopkins Jr. may only be completing 48% of his passes, but he’s getting 10.8 yards per attempt and has thrown for over 600 yards on the year.
The best way to win while running the ball is to also have a great defense. Surprising those who never thought the Black Knights would compete with the game’s best defensively due to academic and weight restrictions, Army is 21st in the nation in yards allowed and 23rd in points per game allowed. In the week 4 loss to OU, Army held the Sooners to 28 points (in overtime, 21 in regulation), by far Oklahoma’s lowest output of the season.
It also helps that West Point’s generals have finally caught up with admirals in the Navy in allowing some type of reasonable extra weight on recruited linemen.
Typically when a line moves as many as 4+ points in the first few days of betting action, it indicates some type of severe injury or weather pattern. Neither seems to be the case here. Hopkins Jr. is fine and there’s nothing decimating the Army team otherwise.
Yet the point spread has still shifted dramatically toward Miami. Perhaps gamblers simply find the line mispriced considering that the Redhawks are so hot right now.
But Army is playing really well and has all kinds of momentum too.
I’m liking the Over (46.5) because I believe Army’s defense is a combination of 1) improved but not stellar recruiting (at least compared to the Power-5) 2) Ball control on offense and 3) Passion, guile, and spit. Only 1 out of those 3 things have anything to do with athletic ability, meaning that a clicking MAC offense can absolutely move the egg on a service academy defense – even the best one out there.
But Army’s offense isn’t likely to be slowed down either. Take the Black Knights to win in a high-scoring contest by 2+ touchdowns: Best bets are Army-to-cover and Over total points.