Winning Picks from Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy

My selection is on Niagara plus the points over Saint Peter's at 2 pm et on Sunday.

These two teams had very different results in their respective MAAC openers on Friday as Niagara was thrashed 83-54 at Siena while Saint Peter's rolled to a double-digit home win over Canisius. I look for the shoe to be on the other foot on Sunday as the Purple Eagles look to bounce back and salvage the back half of this weekend set. There's not a lot separating these two teams at all this season. Niagara has faced the more difficult schedule, albeit only slightly, by most metrics. I do like the way the Purple Eagles have limited their opponents scoring opportunities having yet to allow 60+ field goal attempts in a game this season. Of course, Saint Peter's has never met a slow-paced game it doesn't like, with all seven of its opponents hoisting up 57 or fewer field goal attempts this season. With that being said, the Peacocks have benefited from volume-shooting offensively, getting off more than 60 field goal attempts in five of their seven contests. I'm just not convinced they'll be able to get there in a game where the opposition is sure to be in a foul mood off a blowout loss. Expect a down-to-the-wire affair at the very least. Take Niagara (8*).

My selection is on Northwestern State plus the points over Southeastern Louisiana at 4:30 pm et on Sunday.

I don't think there's as much separating these two teams as indicated by the lofty pointspread favoring Southeastern Louisiana on Sunday. Northwestern State is a woeful 1-7 SU on the season but has faced the more difficult schedule compared to the Lions and has managed to navigate a 3-2 ATS mark over its last five lined contests. The Demons have been giving up too many good looks to opposing offenses but Southeastern Louisiana might have a difficult time taking advantage as it has connected on 24 or fewer field goals in all seven games against Division-I opponents this season. This game figures to be played at a slow pace, noting that the Lions have held three straight and four of their eight opponents to fewer than 50 field goal attempts this season. Note that while Northwestern State was able to play a glorified scrimmage on the road against McNeese State two nights ago, Southeastern Louisiana has been idle since sweeping a pair of neutral site contests (both SU and ATS) last weekend. The Lions figure to be feeling pretty good about themselves off that successful weekend but could be in for a letdown in a game they should win on Sunday. Take Northwestern State (8*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Golden State at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Warriors snapped their two-game slide with a 99-94 'upset' win in Cleveland last night. They're in a tough spot on Sunday as they play their third game in four nights, in a third different city. Meanwhile, Chicago has lost six straight games including consecutive 'upset' defeats to open its current homestand. It will be looking to salvage the finale of that homestand tonight. Injuries have certainly played a role in their slide, but I look for them to make a stand here. Note that despite the victory last night, the Warriors are still just 5-9 on the road this season while the Bulls check in 6-4 at home. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

Everyone was singing the Rams praises entering last week's matchup in Carolina but instead of rolling to their seventh straight win, they were 'upset' by the Panthers. I'm confident we'll see Los Angeles bounce back this week as it stays on the road to take on the Cardinals, who won for us in a field goal defeat in Tampa last Sunday. Few teams are as healthy as the Rams right now. The same can't be said for the Cardinals who are missing key contributors on defense in Walter Nolen III and Max Melton. The Rams likely took last Sunday's embarrassing defeat personally and I'm confident we see them draw up an aggressive gameplan on both sides of the football here. The Cardinals certainly haven't quit on the season and QB Jacoby Brissett has performed admirably since taking over the starting job, but without any semblance of a consistent ground attack, I think they're going to have a difficult time effectively shortening this game and staying inside the pointspread. Take Los Angeles (8*).

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Ravens haven't instilled much confidence in bettors this season and certainly didn't do themselves any favors with last week's Thanksgiving Night 'upset' loss at home against the Bengals. Here, I do think they're worthy of our support, however, as they host the similarly-reeling Steelers. Pittsburgh has lost back-to-back games both SU and ATS and is dealing with a number of key injuries, not to mention the fact that QB Aaron Rodgers is clearly not at full strength and a shell of his former self at this stage of his career. The Ravens defense figures to have taken last week's loss personally and is well-positioned to bounce back in this spot. I'm not sure too much will be asked of the Baltimore offense in this game, but we can expect the Steelers defense to get a heavy dose of RB Derrick Henry after getting flamed by the Bills ground attack last week. Look for the Ravens to hold serve at home before these two teams meet again in the final week of the regular season in January. Take Baltimore.

NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We cashed a big ticket fading the Buccaneers last week as they left the back door wide open in an eventual three-point home win over the Cardinals. We'll grab the points at the expense of the Bucs again this week as I feel they're once again overvalued at home. Tampa Bay remains banged-up all over the field. QB Baker Mayfield hasn't looked quite himself for weeks. Even last Sunday, when they got a boost from the return of RB Bucky Irving, the Bucs could still only muster 20 points. They've been held to 23 points or less in four of their last five games and are winless ATS over their last four contests. The losses continue to pile up for the Saints but they have at least provided some optimism by going 2-1 ATS in their last three games. They showed no quit in last week's four-point loss in Miami and given they've held seven of their last eight opponents to 26 points or less, I believe they're in good position to stay inside the lofty pointspread on Sunday. Keep in mind, this is a division 'revenge' game for New Orleans after it was dusted 23-3 at home back on October 26th. That was when the Saints were in the midst of a four-game SU and ATS slide while the Bucs improved to 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS with that victory but are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS since. Take New Orleans (10*).

NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Perhaps no team is more in need of a 'get right' spot than the Vikings right now and I think they're well-positioned for exactly that as they return home to host the Commanders on Sunday. We won with Washington in last Sunday night's wild overtime defeat at the hands of the Broncos. The Commanders left it all on the field in that game and while they will welcome back dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels on Sunday, this isn't a promising matchup for him, likely still playing at less than 100% and with little reason to put too much on the line with the team simply playing out the string at this point. Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy has really struggled since returning from injury but he does draw a favorable matchup here. The Commanders defense can be hole-punched by even the most pedestrian offensive attacks and I do think we see the Vikes throw everything they have at them in an effort to save face off an embarrassing loss last week and following four losses in a row both SU and ATS. Take Minnesota (10*).