The pass rush that saved the Wyoming defense last season is likely to slump early-on due to the Cowboys’ schedule. The Mountain West school faces a September slate that will include Washington State, Missouri, Wofford, and Boise State. All 4 programs have well above-average offensive lines, and Wofford doesn’t like to pass anyway.
But it’s hard for handicappers to wrap their heads around defense potentially being the storyline in Laramie. After all, the Cowboys just lost their best rustler, 1st-round NFL draft pick Josh Allen, to the Buffalo Bills.
The Allen-less ‘Boys will take on an FBS independent fresh out of the Sun Belt Conference in New Mexico State. The Aggies’ final in-league campaign wasn’t exactly an Earth-shattering revelation, but it must have felt like one to long-suffering Aggie fans. Coach Doug Martin’s squad beat rival New Mexico, played well in losses to Pac-12 and SEC powers, and beat Utah State in December to finish with a winning record.
Who: Wyoming Cowboys at New Mexico State
When: Saturday, August 25th, 10 PM EST
Where: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM
Lines: Wyoming (-4) at NMSU (+4) / O/U Total: (45)
Get the rest of this week’s college football odds here.
In a football landscape where head coaches are sat on the hot seat after a bad season and sometimes get fired after 2 bad records in a row, New Mexico State administrators deserve credit for their patience. Martin took over the program in 2013 following an undistinguished career in the MAC, and prevailed in only 10 games during his first 4 seasons with the Aggies. But the program stuck by him.
Former starting QB Tyler Rogers is gone, leaving veteran backup Nick Jeanty and NJCAA transfer Matt Romero to fight for the job. Jason Huntley is a talented RB, but the Aggies will need to take care of the egg. As of Thursday, Romero is the expected starter vs Wyoming.
NMSU’s defense can give opposing signal-callers fits. Led by QB-hunters like Cedric Wilcots II, the 2017 Aggies ranked 2nd in the FBS with 43 total sacks. Keep that up, and another bowl appearance is in sight.
Wyoming has lost Josh Allen, but are rated by sportsbook odds-makers to go at least 7-5. Is it wise to put out such numbers based on last year’s success when it was so dependent a missing player?
The offense wasn’t even that amazing with Allen throwing passes. He has a good arm and fast feet that attracted NFL scouts, but his supporting cast in Laramie did not flourish. The Cowboys slipped by Utah State 28-23, beat CSU 16-13 and walked backwards into a bowl appearance in 2017.
My real concern is that HC Craig Bohl is used to having a talent advantage. He coached North Dakota State for years, a program which has gamed the system by fielding a Power-5 level team in the FCS. Last year, he had an NFL passer. Now what does he do having equal or less material to work with than most of the schools on the schedule?
The point spread at (-4) makes things pretty clear. Wyoming cannot win by a field goal or a safety and still cover the spread. Playing on the road against a fierce pass-rushing program, can new starting QB Tyler Vander Waal execute the shotgun-spread in his first test?
However, bookies are relatively sure that the Mountain West team will prevail, with a consensus moneyline of (+150) for the underdog Aggies.
The total points line of (45) shows how O/U totals tend to be inflated in college ball, but for a logical reason. A pair of defense-oriented NFL teams might have a lower O/U, but even if Wyoming struggles to move the ball and NMSU relies on its defense and running game, with the high tempo and extra clock-stoppages in college it’s possible that the teams would find a way to score 50+ points regardless.
Bohl might not enjoy a material advantage for most of the season, but he probably will have one over the Aggies. Wyoming’s rebuild over the past few years benefited from Allen’s presence, but also from burly offensive and defensive lines that have gone toe-to-toe with Boise State, NIU, SDSU and other powerful programs.
New Mexico State shouldn’t be counted out even as a poor former Sun Belt squad. The Aggies have also looked good against physical teams like Troy and ASU.
However, I am thinking that the depth of the MWC representatives will turn the tide late in this contest. Bohl will give Vander Waal a lot of easy nickel passes and screens to throw early in the 1st half. But it will take until the 3rd quarter for the bigger and faster visitors to start pulling away.
The good news is that while Wyoming could conceivably lose this game, the Cowboys are likely to win by more than 4 points if they do hold serve.
I’m thinking a final score of Wyoming 27, NMSU 19.
My recommendation is a modest 1 or 2-unit wager on the visitors ATS.