The no. 5 Wisconsin Badgers look to continue their promising start to the season when they host the New Mexico Lobos. Game time is scheduled for noon EST on Saturday, September 8, at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. The game is available on the Big Ten Network.
Oddsmakers list Wisconsin as a 35-point favorite to beat New Mexico. Click here to see a full list of college football odds for the second week of the season.
As expected, the Badgers had no problem disposing of Western Kentucky in their season opener. They didn’t quite beat the spread, but there are few complaints with the 34-3 win, even if Wisconsin took their foot off the gas in the second half. Wisconsin will no doubt be expecting similar success this week before their schedule starts to increase in difficulty in the weeks to follow.
New Mexico also started their season 1-0 by beating Incarnate Word, an FCS program, 62-30. Despite plenty of scoring by their offense, the Lobos also gave up 30 points and over 500 yards of total offense against a team from the lower division. However, you can’t blame New Mexico for wanting to take things a little easy after taking finishing the first quarter with a 28-7 lead.
Obviously, this is a bit of an uneven matchup on paper. However, it’s important not to forget that New Mexico head coach Bob Davie has plenty of experience with big-time college football. The Lobos have also managed to play competitive games with noteworthy programs like Boise State, Rutgers, and Arizona in recent years. New Mexico is also just two years removed from a nine-win season, so they may not be a pushover for the Badgers.
I usually try to talk myself out of swallowing this many points, but I couldn’t in this game. Even after Wisconsin failed to cover a big spread against Western Kentucky last week, I’m still going to side with the Badgers in this matchup. I simply can’t get past such an even performance New Mexico had last week against an FCS opponent. I’ll take my chances that Wisconsin will make more of an effort in the second half this week and cover against a lesser team.
I understand that New Mexico only gave up 16 points through the first three quarters against Incarnate Word. It’s somewhat acceptable to give up a couple garbage time touchdowns after the win has been secured. But the overall numbers that the New Mexico defense gave up against an FCS opponent just don’t sit well with me.
For example, Incarnate Word had 244 total rushing yards, averaging 7.2 yards per carry. Even if you take away the 90-yard touchdown run the Lobos gave up in the 2nd quarter, they still allowed more rushing yards than you would like to see against a lower-level opponent. It goes without saying that such a performance doesn’t bode well heading into a game against the Wisconsin rushing attack. Heisman candidates Jonathan Taylor had 145 yards on 18 carries last week, and he didn’t even account for half of his team’s carries, which says something about the potency of Wisconsin’s running game.
To be fair to New Mexico, they also posted some crazy offensive numbers. They had over 300 yards rushing and over 350 yards passing. That did give me a little pause in swallowing the points. However, quarterback Tevaka Tuioti was just 13 for 21 passing the ball, which is good but not great efficiency against an FCS school. Starting running back Tyrone Owens also gained a measly 2.9 yards per carry on 20 carries. As a team, the Lobos gained just 4.8 yards per carry on the ground, which again, isn’t all that impressive against an inferior opponent.
The kicker is that Incarnate Word is one of the worst FCS programs. They are coming off a 1-10 season and have won a total of four games over the past two seasons. If New Mexico were a halfway decent FBS program, they should have been able to dominate them on both sides of the ball. There’s no excuse for New Mexico to give up 30 points and over 500 yards of offense to a team like that.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin did just about everything right in their season opener against Western Kentucky, who’s probably a better team overall than New Mexico. The Badgers didn’t put their foot down to blowout Western Kentucky the way they could have, but they looked strong on both sides of the ball.
Ultimately, I think Wisconsin will be a little more willing to push the envelope this week against New Mexico, knowing that they need to prepare for the more challenging parts of their schedule ahead. That should make them a little more likely to stay aggressive and keep scoring, even if they have a comfortable lead. Combined with New Mexico’s perceived ineptness, particularly on defense, against an FCS opponent, I feel comfortable leaning toward Wisconsin to cover the 35-point spread. I don’t love swallowing this many points, but I’ll take my chances with the Badgers.