Last year’s edition of this MAC in-state rivalry game dubbed “Victory Cannon” was one of the closer contests between the 2 in recent years. Western Michigan got the 20-17 road win in overtime. Each offense was fine between the 20s, but struggled with missed chances. 5 turnovers and stout Red Zone defensive stands kept the game well below the Vegas total despite the added minutes.
If there’s a pithy phrase to describe the odds and betting action for WMU vs EMU these days, it’s “trend-city.” Western Michigan has been favored in every game in this series since 1997 when Eastern Michigan closed as a 1 point favorite and lost. During the span of Bronco teams being favored in the moneyline and on the point spread, Eastern Michigan covered at a 63% clip, including 5 outright upsets.
The Eagles will enter this weekend as an underdog once again, looking to pull off another stunner in Kalamazoo.
But should they really be stunners at this point?
Who: Eastern Michigan Eagles at Western Michigan Broncos
When: Saturday, October 6th, 12 PM EST
Where: Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, MI
Lines: EMU (+4.5 vs WMU (-4.5) / O/U Total: (58)
The first thing to know about this series is that the games tend to be close and emotional, even when one school is way more talented than the other, or when one program has a big winning streak going. The exception was a 39-point EMU loss in P.J. Fleck’s final, powerhouse season at WMU.
Weather predictions for the contest have been causing a stir, namely rain and wind. But many forecasts are calling for thunderstorm activity in the air. Some handicappers are saying that tailback LeVante Bellamy could play a larger role for Western Michigan on a rainy, sloppy day. I agree, except picking this game based on the weather is nonsense, due to the lightning factor.
The FBS remains fiercely opposed to having a tragedy, plus the worst, most potentially profit-killing PR disaster of all time on its hands all in the span of .1 seconds. If a thunderstorm passes near Waldo Stadium, the game will be delayed. They won’t mess around with even a hint of lightning threatening the kids or the crowd.
If it was a cooler temperature forecast, something in the 50s where it would be hard for lightning to develop, that’s one thing. But meteorologists expect storms in warm weather that should peak at 70-75 degrees.
So as opposed to handicapping with wet weather in mind, let’s imagine a delayed, possibly even postponed kickoff and/or 2nd half played on a wet field. Which squad is more mentally fit for a marathon of uncertainty?
The Eagles are coming in off of 3 straight losses (2 in overtime) after their nice upset win over Purdue in Week 2. While all of the losses have been to quality competition, HC Chris Creighton will have his hands full trying to refocus his team after a long stretch of emotional finishes.
Eastern Michigan will want to leverage their Senior QB Tyler Wiegers against a poor Bronco pass defense. That might be hampered by the expected 13-18 mph winds, but again, the weather for Kalamazoo is a crap-shoot and a potential overall downer more than it is a static quantity.
The Broncos entered 2017 in a year of transition after Fleck left to take the job at Minnesota. In 2018, they appear to be in a year of imbalance. WMU committed penalties and blunders against Miami of Ohio but hung on to win last week. Star quarterback Jon Wassink provided all of the points apart from XPs.
The offense has been impressive this year, and they should be able to trade scores with anyone in the MAC. The downside is that the Broncos might have to, as their defense currently ranks 104th in the country.
Still, optimism is afloat in Bronco Nation for the connection between Wassink and WRs Reed and Eskridge:
Talk about a breakout day for freshman receiver Jayden Reed, who tied Greg Jennings’s school record with four touchdowns in a game.
Reed’s 137 yards was a nice complement to D’Wayne Eskridge’s 141 yards as both players gave Miami’s defense fits the whole game. It’ll be interesting to see what’s next for the electric freshman.
Electric usually takes a company. While you have to like WMU’s prospects to mount drives in this contest, the defense being down gives EMU a shot to control the ball and the clock.
Most MAC teams just aren’t great at doing that though, outside of Northern Illinois and Ohio on occasion. Eastern Michigan may not have the right formula this time around against a hot QB and his supporting cast.
I’m liking Western Michigan by at least a touchdown, because they’re not playing Navy. The running game will come in handy on a wet field no matter if the game takes 3 hours or 13, and Eastern Michigan is only averaging 3.0 yards per carry. That’s not enough to control a rivalry scrum away from home.
Take Western Michigan to cover and also look hard at the under (58) total points.