The No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide host the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers on Saturday, September 10th in an intriguing non-conference affair. The Crimson Tide are 2-0 all-time against the Hilltoppers, including a 35-0 shutout in their last meeting in 2012.
Alabama (1-0) got off to an emphatic start to defending its National Championship. It crushed USC 52-6 in what was supposed to be one of the biggest games of the Week 1 slate.
Western Kentucky (1-0) also started 2016 impressively after winning the Conference USA Championship last season. The Hilltoppers got their offense rolling again with a 46-14 beat down of Rice at home last week.
Kickoff inside Bryant-Denny Stadium is scheduled for 3:30 EST Saturday afternoon with ESPN 2 providing the television coverage. Oddsmakers in Las Vegas have tabbed Alabama as a 29.5-point favorite over Western Kentucky with a total set of 61.5 points.
Alabama has certainly struggled with spread offenses before. We have seen them lose to Ole Miss each of the last two years. They needed a late touchdown to beat Tennessee last year at home, and they also gave up 40 points and 550 total yards to Clemson in the National Championship.
Western Kentucky has been an impressive offensive team since Jeff Brohm arrived. It put up 44.4 points and 535 yards per game in 2014, and 44.3 points and 526 yards per game in 2015 en route to a 12-2 record.
That offense is off to a fast start this season despite the loss of the school’s all-time leading passer in Brandon Doughty. That’s because they had eight starters back on offense, which made the job on USF transfer Mike White a lot easier.
Doughty even said White throws a better ball than him, and that was on display in WKU’s 46-14 throttling of Rice in the opener. The Hilltoppers racked up 649 total yards behind a 25-of-30, 517-yard, three-touchdown performance from White that shows they aren’t going to miss a beat this year.
One thing that got lost last year with this WKU team was how improved the defense was. Coordinator Nick Holt is a fiery guy who gets after his players. The Hilltoppers gave up 25.9 points per game last year after allowing 39.9 per game in 2014. They held Rice to just 14 points and 288 total yards in their opener.
We also saw last year that the Hilltoppers could hang with a powerful team from the SEC. In fact, they only trailed LSU 17-13 in the third quarter before getting blown out late in a 20-48 loss in sloppy conditions. Those conditions favored LSU way more than WKU.
Alabama just struggles covering big numbers at home early in the season because its style is not to run up the scoreboard. Last year they beat Middle Tennessee 37-10 as 35-point favorites and Louisiana-Monroe 34-0 as 38-point favorites, failing to cover in both instances. WKU is better than both those teams.
This is a bad spot for Alabama as it just came off a huge blowout win over USC, which has it overvalued right now. The Crimson Tide will be much more interested in next week’s SEC opener at Ole Miss as they look to avenge two straight losses to the Rebels.
This is a bad spot for Alabama as it just came off a huge blowout win over USC, which has it overvalued right now. The Crimson Tide will be much more interested in next week’s SEC opener at Ole Miss as they look to avenge two straight losses to the Rebels.
Plays on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (W KENTUCKY) – after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
The Hilltoppers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. The Crimson Tide are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games. Alabama is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. Conference-USA foes.