The no. 11 Texas Longhorns will look to remain unbeaten in Big 12 play when they hit the road to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers. Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST on Saturday, October 5 at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, West Virginia. The game will be broadcast nationally on ABC.
Early betting odds have the Longhorns favored by 11.5 points on the road. The over/under for the contest is set at 59.5 points. Be sure to check out a full list of this week’s college football betting odds.
Texas got last week off to prepare for their longest road trip of the season. Prior to that, the Longhorns did well to bounce back from their loss to LSU with wins over Rice and Oklahoma State. Texas was pushed into the fourth quarter by Oklahoma State, but Sam Ehlinger threw four touchdown passes to make sure the Longhorns came out on top. The key for Texas this week could be avoiding the temptation to look past West Virginia and focus on next week’s showdown with Oklahoma too early.
As for the Mountaineers, they’ve have had some ups and downs under new head coach Neal Brown. West Virginia suffered an early setback by losing 38-7 to Missouri. But they surprised some people by bouncing back with a 44-27 win over NC State. In their last game, the Mountaineers escaped Lawrence with a 29-24 win over Kansas. West Virginia is halfway to bowl eligibility as they head into the heart of their Big 12 schedule. However, there are no easy wins from here on out. Facing Texas on their home turf should be a good litmus test to see how the Mountaineers stack up against one of the top teams in the Big 12.
Since joining the Big 12, the Mountaineers have actually had plenty of success against Texas, winning four of their seven head-to-head meetings with the Longhorns. That includes a wild 42-21 win in Austin last season. Of course, the Mountaineers have experienced a ton of roster turnover since that game. Also, Tom Herman and Texas won their last visit to Morgantown two years ago.
It’s going to take a lot for me to bet against Texas for the rest of the season. Ehlinger is having a special season, and at this point, I trust him to will the Longhorns to victory if he has to. Obviously, Texas has some points to cover in this game. But I’m not sure if West Virginia is ready for a game like this. This feels like a game when the Mountaineers find out just how long they have to go. I’ll swallow the points and lean toward Texas to cover.
As mentioned, it’s all about Ehlinger. He’s been phenomenal this season, completing 73% of his passes and throwing 15 touchdowns to just one interception. Ehlinger is also averaging close to nine yards per pass attempt, so unlike past years, he’s not afraid to air it out down the field. I was a little skeptical coming into the season, but Ehlinger has undoubtedly taken his game to another level this year.
Perhaps more importantly, he’s getting plenty of help around him. Ehlinger hasn’t been sacked in two straight games, so the offensive line is holding up well. The Longhorns have also been able to lean a little more on sophomore running back Keaontay Ingram. He had 21 carries in the win over Oklahoma State and has averaged over five yards per carry on the season. Texas doesn’t have much running back depth, but Ingram has been able to carry the load so the Longhorns don’t need Ehlinger to do as much running as he’s done the past couple of seasons.
While the West Virginia defense has done enough to win games against NC State and Kansas, facing Texas could be a different story. The talent level on the Texas offense is better than what the Mountaineers have previously faced this season. I think it’s reasonable to expect the Longhorns to push for 40 points in this game.
If that’s the case, it’ll put a lot of pressure on West Virginia to keep pace in a shootout. Of course, quarterback Austin Kendall has waited a long time to get a crack at Texas after beginning his career at Oklahoma. But I’m not convinced he’s ready for the challenge. The WVU offense as a whole struggled against Missouri, Even last week, the Mountaineers weren’t overly impressive, being held under 400 yards despite having the ball for over 37 minutes. The Texas defense will put up some resistance and I’m still unconvinced by the supporting cast around Kendall. The Mountaineers have some youth and inexperience in some spots.
Even on the road, I think 11.5 points is a fair spread. Once Ehlinger and the Texas offense get going, I think they’ll be tough for the West Virginia defense to stop. Eventually, it’ll be too much for Kendall and the WVU offense to match. To be fair, the Mountaineers may keep this game close in the second half. But I think Texas pulls away in the end and wins by a couple of touchdowns.