The no. 17 West Virginia Mountaineers get their 2018 season underway with a neutral site game against the Tennessee Volunteers. The game is scheduled for 3:30 EST on Saturday, September 1, at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. The game will be nationally televised on CBS. Oddsmakers list the Mountaineers as 10-point favorites to beat the Volunteers.
West Virginia’s season will begin with great optimism. Outside of a 10-3 campaign in 2016, the Mountaineers have struggled to rise above mediocrity during their stint in the Big 12. But West Virginia has reasons to believe this year could be different. Quarterback Will Grier is being touted as a possible Heisman contender and behind him, the Mountaineers believe they’re ready to challenge for a Big 12 title.
Expectations are a little different in Tennessee. The Volunteers are coming off a season in which they went 4-8 and were winless in SEC play. After parting ways with Butch Jones, Tennessee had a world of difficulty finding a new head coach before settling for Jeremy Pruitt. Pruitt will have his work cut out for him this season, and starting out the season against a power-conference team like West Virginia doesn’t make things any easier.
These two teams have never met on the football field before, so there is no history between them. Both schools are also fairly close to Charlotte, so the crowd should be close to a 50-50 split between Vols fans and Mountaineers fans.
I was surprised to see only a 10-point spread in this game. These two teams are at opposite ends of the hype train heading into the season. The Mountaineers are gearing up for a run at a conference championship while the Volunteers are just hoping to win one or two conference games this season. Pruitt may be able to make some progress with the Vols by season’s end, but I don’t think they’re ready for this kind of game. For me, this is a heavy lean in favor of West Virginia.
West Virginia had one of the most prolific passing attacks in the country last year until Grier got hurt late in the season, and they could be even better this year. Grier had nearly 3,500 yards passing and 34 touchdowns last season in a little over 10 games, and that was after sitting out a year as a transfer and having to shake off some rust. The Mountaineers will return three of their top four receivers from a year ago, most notably Gary Jennings Jr. and David Sills. Alabama transfer T.J. Simmons also joins the mix, potentially giving Grier four quality wide receivers at his disposal, which will create mismatches for a lot of teams.
To be fair, Pruitt is an excellent defensive coach who should eventually get the Tennessee defense playing at a high level. But they might be a little out of their league against the Mountaineers. The Vols are inexperienced at cornerback, and if Pruitt follows through on his plan to play press coverage, Tennessee could give up a lot of big plays against Grier and the West Virginia passing attack.
The Mountaineers may also be able to run the ball with great success against Tennessee. Staying balanced on offense isn’t always a necessity for West Virginia. But they do have NFL-caliber talent on the offensive line, so they should be able to push the Vols around in the trenches. Tennessee is sorting out a move to a 3-4 scheme, and while they have some size and experience up front, the front-7 could be vulnerable against teams with powerful offensive lines.
Of course, the Mountaineers have some issues of their own on the defensive side of the ball. West Virginia will be relying on a couple transfers to keep their defensive line together. They will also be inexperienced at cornerback and could have issues with depth at linebacker. The defense has rarely been a strength for West Virginia during their time in the Big 12, and that could continue this season.
However, I’m not convinced that Tennessee will be able to take advantage of West Virginia’s defensive shortcomings. The Vols have still not decided on a quarterback between incumbent Jarrett Guarantano and Stanford grad transfer Keller Chryst. Either way, Tennessee’s quarterback will play behind an offensive line with serious questions. The Vols only gained just 3.4 yards per rush last year, so even against a vulnerable West Virginia defense, they may not be able to establish a reliable ground game.
The saving grace for Tennessee could be a nice collection of receivers against West Virginia’s inexperienced cornerbacks. But again, neither quarterback has stood out in training camp enough to claim the job, which is a concern. Opportunities should be there, but there’s no guarantee the Volunteers will be able to execute.
I think the atmosphere of this game and the fact that it’s at a neutral site will help Tennessee to keep the game close in the first half. But I don’t see the Vols being able to keep West Virginia’s passing attack under wraps for 60 minutes. I also don’t think the Tennessee offense will be able to do enough on offense to survive a shootout. A 10-point spread doesn’t sound like a lot to me, so I’ll gladly take West Virginia to cover.
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