Meet the West Virginia Mountaineers, the quietest undefeated Top 10 team in college football.
Or maybe the 9th-ranked Big 12 school is viewed as having an asterisk next to its rank. The Mountaineers are technically worthy of the position, as a Power-5 school with a proud history and a lot of talent. They’ve done everything asked of them, beating 2 tough conference foes over the last 2 weeks and running-up a 4-0 record.
But the best team they have beaten is Texas Tech, in a 42-34 final that had “random Texas Tech outcome” written all over it.
The players at WVU may be bigger fans of the next match-up than the boosters are. Saturday’s scrum with visiting Kansas University can’t possibly improve the Mountaineers’ ranking unless teams ahead of them tank. But it could improve the health and well-being of the program to enjoy a lazy 2nd half if at all possible.
Obviously, the Jayhawks have other ideas. Kansas had an almost cathartic loss to Oklahoma State last weekend, and owns a surprisingly OK 2-3 record with 2 blow-out wins.
The college football odds-makers in Vegas are not ready to take KU seriously.
Who: Kansas Jayhawks at West Virginia Mountaineers
When: Saturday, October 6th, 12 PM EST
Where: Mountaineer Field, Morgantown, WV
Lines: KU (+29) at WVU (-29) / O/U Total: (61)
West Virginia returns home after beating a strong Red Raider team in Lubbock. Will Grier will have a great opportunity to pad his statistics while chasing an already impressive Heisman campaign when the Mountaineers host KU. But that doesn’t mean it will happen.
What is certain is the long-term benefit. For a school like West Virginia, the recruiting impact from having a front-runner for a premiere national award is size-able. Head coach Dana Holgorsen will keep his foot off on the gas even if there’s a lopsided score on the board.
While QB Will Grier may get most of the notoriety, junior WR Marcus Simms is starting to establish himself as a consistent play-maker in his own right. He is averaging over 100 yards per game receiving, and is also the team’s punt returner.
WVU’s defense might be the secret to their success so far, ranked in the top 1/4 of all FBS schools.
Kansas came into the year with the expectation that things would be a little better in Lawrence. But with a little context of how bad things have been over the past decade, that improvement could still mean remaining in the basement of the Big 12. Of course, KU may have some company if Kansas State continues to struggle the way it has.
The Jayhawks might not have a tougher test this season than the one they will face this week on the road against West Virginia. We have seen the spread climb north over the key number of 28, not a good sign for how the public views Kansas – despite the 55-14 and 31-7 blow-outs over the past few weeks.
“Outlook Still Gloomy” is the collective headline from the Jayhawk press:
What if I told you that KU would trail early in the fourth quarter by just 13 points to Oklahoma State? Would you take that? Sure you would. It still doesn’t mean the game was particularly close or competitive. The Cowboys outgained the Jayhawks 568 yards to 368. The number of total plays for each team was nearly identical: OSU ran 66 plays, KU 64. But the efficiency difference is almost mind-boggling. OSU gained 8.6 yards per play; KU just 5.7.
The Jayhawks continued to struggle on third down, converting just 3-13 (23.0%). KU is now just 24-75 (32.0%) on the season and has yet to have a game over 50.0%. And once again, field position was an issue, with Kansas beginning just two possessions outside of its own 25-yard line, and no possessions began in OSU territory. Kansas did not punt from plus territory in this game, but there was a 4th-and-1 from its own 34 yard line early in the third quarter where the Jayhawks punted. In my opinion, they probably should have gone for it, as they were already trailing 31-14.
Bettors who have read my handicaps before know that sometimes I bring up High School football. Though I cover prep football, it is not a vanity offering. The amateur game is a laboratory, a purer version of gridiron combat we can all learn from.
The blogger from Rock Chalk Talk quoted above is forgetting the simplest rule of High School ball, applicable to all other levels as well. When a doormat shows signs of life against big-time opponents, it is a significant event. Kansas was supposed to lose to Oklahoma State by 40 points, not 20. No amount of home-team compensatory pessimism can change that.
Pooka Williams Jr. has rushed for over 7 yards per carry on 60 tries. 3 KU quarterbacks have thrown a combined 8 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions with almost a 63% completion mark.
As one very brave soul on NFL Network said about Timmy Tebow’s final exhibition stint in the NFL, “these are not pedestrian numbers.”
Senior linebacker Joe Dineen Jr as he will be around the football a lot on Saturday. He leads the team with 63 tackles and 3.5 tackles for a loss. But KU’s defense is good enough to stop West Virginia only when WVU makes mistakes.
5 ways this game can potentially go:
1 – WVU wears down and trounces Kansas by 30+ points. 2 – Kansas scores the miracle upset. 3 – It’s a strange, sloppy, low-scoring win for WVU. 4 – WVU scores a bunch, but KU scores almost as many.
3 out of those 4 basic possibilities are good for Kansas to cover. Even if there’s a 40% chance for #1 to happen, that still leaves a 60% chance for favorable bet-winning conditions on the underdog ATS.
Take the upstart Jayhawks and (29) points.