Vegas Point Spread Betting Pick: Duke vs Virginia

The Duke Blue Devils will try to wrap up bowl eligibility this week when they play host to the Virginia Cavaliers. Game time is set for 12:30 EST on Saturday, October 20, at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina. Fans can watch the game on ACC Network Extra.

According to the Week 8 college football odds, Duke opened the week as 8-point favorites. However, that line has fallen slightly with the Blue Devils now favored by 7.5 points at home.

Duke vs Virginia Vegas Odds & Game Preview

The Cavaliers head to Durham riding high off after last week’s upset win over Miami. Virginia held on for a 16-13 win that could be a turning point for the program under Bronco Mendenhall. The win brought the Cavs to 4-2 overall, meaning they just need two wins from their final six games to reach a bowl game for a second straight season.

Last week’s win also made Virginia 2-1 in ACC play, making them one of four teams in the Coastal division with one loss who are chasing Virginia Tech at the top of the division. The Cavs technically control their own destiny, so if they can continue to build momentum and win out, they would go to the ACC Championship Game.

Of course, the Blue Devils also have their eyes on a surprise trip to the ACC title game. Duke also has just one loss in conference play and is 5-1 overall after beating Georgia Tech last week. The Blue Devils also have wins this season over Army, Northwestern, and Baylor, so they’ve been challenged by some good teams and come out on top more times than not.

However, Duke’s path to the ACC Championship Game is not so simple. Their only loss was to Virginia Tech, so they need the Hokies to drop two conference games. The Blue Devils would also have to win out against a schedule that includes road trips to Miami and Clemson. Nevertheless, beating Virginia would make them bowl eligible in the middle of October, which would be a nice accomplishment for David Cutcliffe’s team.

It’s also worth noting that this is one of the oldest rivalries in the ACC, as Virginia and Duke first met on the football field in 1890. The Cavaliers have a three-game edge in the all-time series by virtue of beating Duke in each of the last three years. That includes a 34-20 win for Virginia the last time they visited Durham in 2016.

Free NCAAF Betting Prediction: Duke -7.5

Virginia’s triumph last week against Miami will be their downfall this week against Duke. I think a letdown on the road after a big win at home is natural for a team like Virginia. I’m also not yet sold on the Cavaliers being a complete team whereas I like what I’ve seen from Duke this season. I’ll eat the points and lean toward Duke to cover the 7.5 points.

Duke is 3-1 this season against power conference teams. All three wins have come on the road and by double digits, so I know that they can beat good teams and beat them comfortably. Duke’s only blemish this year is a home loss to Virginia Tech, which is understandable. They’ve done enough this season to make me think they’ll take care of business at home.

Defensively, the Blue Devils are allowing just under 18 points per game. They’ve faced several types of offenses, and whether it’s a triple-option team like Georgia Tech or a pass-happy team like Baylor, they’ve been able to handle them.

On the other hand, I’m still not sold on Virginia offensively. Even in last week’s win, they only managed 231 total yards while turning the ball over three times. In fact, turnovers have been a regular problem for the Cavs all season, even in their wins.

Also, Virginia remains too reliant on quarterback Bryce Perkins making plays with his legs rather than his arm. As a passer, he has four touchdowns and six interceptions in ACC play. I think Duke’s defense is good enough to limit his damage on the ground and force him to beat them with his arm, which is not part of Virginia’s winning formula.

Virginia’s best hope in this game is to force a low-scoring, defensive battle like that did last week against Miami. The caveat is that the Virginia defense has been good at home this year but not quite as effective on the road. They gave up 31 points against Ohio in what was a neutral site game and allowed N.C. State to score 35 points a couple weeks ago on the road.

Meanwhile, Duke quarterback Daniel Jones is starting to get back in the groove after missing a couple games due to injury. I don’t expect Jones to light up the scoreboard, but he looks like he’s taken a step forward this season. He’ll make the smart throw, keep the chains moving, and limit his turnovers. With a solid running game and decent receivers around him, Jones will be fine against the Virginia defense.

In the end, I think Duke will find the end zone at least a few times whereas Virginia will struggle to finish off drives without enough balance offensively. This could be an ugly game, but Jones and the Duke defense will make sure the Blue Devils cover the spread.

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