Vegas Odds: Boise State vs San Diego State Preview and Free Pick

If you are a fan of the Mountain West Conference then this is the game you have been waiting for. The perennial MWC powerhouse Boise State Broncos travel down to San Diego, CA, to take on the #19 ranked San Diego State Aztecs. This MWC showdown will be for first place in the conference and it will show just how good the Aztecs are. Kickoff inside Qualcomm Stadium us at 10:30 PM ET.

NCAAF Preview and Betting Lines: Boise State vs San Diego State

These are the two best teams in the Mountain West Conference and they will certainly put on an entertaining game this week. San Diego State (6-0, 2-0 MWC) comes into this game looking to remain undefeated and move their way into the AP’s Top 15. The Aztecs are coming off a 41-10 thrashing of UNLV last week and look to continue their conference dominance.

Boise State (3-2, 1-0 MWC) is coming off a 24-7 victory over BYU on the road. It was a solid performance against a bad team. The Broncos have been inconsistent this season, alternating wins and losses every other week. Boise State has beaten the easy teams like BYU and UNM, but they have lost to the tougher teams like Virginia and Washington State. SDSU is a tough team and they will be tough for BSU to beat.

The Over/Under opened at 47 total points, but has come down to 44.5 total points. The spread opened at -7 for San Diego State and has not changed.

Game Prediction and Free Vegas Sports Bet: San Diego State

In their 4 head-to-head meetings, these two teams are tied at 2-2. They haven’t played since 2014, so it’s hard to use their previous history as a barometer for this game, especially since SDSU’s Christian Chapman and Rashaad Penny weren’t playing then. These two offensive studs are the reason why SDSU is a Top 20 team in the country. And, they will be the reason that the Aztecs win this game on Saturday night.

Chapman has a solid 7-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio and 968 passing yards on the season. He is not asked to win the games, just to manage them. And, he does a great job at that. With only one turnover so far, Chapman keeps his team on the move and doesn’t hurt them. He makes smart plays and puts the offense in the best position to succeed – and that’s via their running game.

The SDSU running game is averaging 222 yards per game and it’s led by one of the best backs in the country – Rashaad Penny. In fact, if Barkley wasn’t in college right now, I would say that Penny is the best back in the Nation. Rashaad has 993 rushing yards and 9 TD’s in 6 games. He also has another 119 yards receiving and 2 touchdown catches. Penny isn’t a threat to get a lot of catches out of the backfield, but he does average a couple per game in your typical check down fashion.

What Penny is a threat to do is break a run to the house, whether it be getting to the outside or smashing it right down the middle of a defense. Penny is a workhorse, as he averages close to 24 carries per game. He wears down a defense before finishing them off. You can expect him to have success this week against an average Boise State defense that gives up 105 rushing yards per game. However, Boise State has not faced a running back like Penny this season and they’re in for a punishing game.

The Broncos are giving up 24 points per game. However, against quality opponents, they’re giving up 45 points per game. SDSU is averaging 31 ppg and only give up 19 ppg.

For the Broncos, they need quarterback Brett Rypien to play solid football and make some big plays. Over their first 5 games, Rypien hasn’t done this. He has only 1 passing TD on the season and 3 interceptions. BSU’s rushing attack is non-existent as they average 125 yards per game. The Broncos are going to have a difficult time moving the ball when they can’t throw well and their running game isn’t that successful. In fact, this will be BSU’s worst loss of the season when it’s all said and done.

Boise State is 4-9 ATS in their last 14 games, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 MWC games. San Diego State is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games vs conference opponents, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games during October and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. SDSU is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against Boise State.

I expect SDSU to thrash Boise State this week as the Broncos just don’t match up well against the Aztecs. SDSU has handled high scoring teams like ASU and UNLV. They have also handled rugged rushing teams like Air Force and Stanford. The Aztecs are a solid team on both sides of the ball and I expect them to win big in this one. Look for a score of 34-13 in favor of SDSU as Penny has 150 rushing yards and Chapman has another solid outing.

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