There will be bragging rights in the state of Tennessee on the line when the Vanderbilt Commodores face the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. Game time is set for 7:30 EST on Saturday, September 1, at Vanderbilt Stadium in Nashville. The game will be broadcast on the SEC Network. The week 1 NCAA football lines show the Commodores are listed as 3-point favorites against their in-state rivals.
Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason knows the cards are always stacked against the Commodores in the SEC. However, Vandy managed to go 4-0 in non-conference play last season, beating regional rivals Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky, as well as pulling off an upset over Kansas State. Alas, they fell one game short of a bowl after going 1-7 in SEC play. Vandy knows it’ll be a similar uphill battle this year, so they must win all of their non-conference games to have any shot at reaching a bowl.
Middle Tennessee, meanwhile, can’t argue with the success they’ve had in Rick Stockstill’s 12 years in Murfreesboro. The Blue Raiders have gone bowling in four of the last five years since joining Conference USA. They’ve also proven to be a pesky mid-major, knocking off a power-conference team in each of the last two seasons. Of course, the Blue Raiders haven’t won a conference title since Stockstill’s first season in 2006, so there remains room for improvement.
There appears to be a budding rivalry between these two programs, as they’ve met in each of the past three seasons. Of course, a true rivalry requires both teams being able to win, and Vandy has taken the head-to-head matchup each of the last three years, including a 28-6 win in last year’s season opener.
For the record, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Middle Tennessee win this game. They have enough talent to give a team like Vanderbilt and some other power-conference opponents trouble. But being capable of winning and actually winning are two different things. It’s more likely that Vanderbilt will find a way to prevail. With the spread only at three points, I’ll lean toward the Commodores doing enough to cover.
The biggest X-factor in this game will be the Vanderbilt defense. They looked excellent early in 2017 but fell apart when SEC play started. Changes have been made and over a handful of starters have been lost to graduation. But I believe Mason will be able to pull things together in time for the season opener. The Commodores should have a solid defensive line, which is vital against mid-major teams. Vandy also figures to have just enough talent in the back-7 to survive against a mid-major like Middle Tennessee.
Of course, no one should be sleeping on Middle Tennessee’s offense, even if the Blue Raiders managed just six points against Vandy last year. Senior Brent Stockstill, the coach’s son, returns as the starting quarterback. The team struggled when he missed six games due to injury last season, and he wasn’t always had his best once he returned late in the year.
However, Stockstill is a senior with nearly 9,000 career passing yards under his belt. With a decent set of skill players around him, Stockstill is capable of having a big game if the Vanderbilt defense isn’t ready. He’s the main reason why I might hesitate to pick the Commodores in this game.
However, while Stockstill is a capable quarterback, Vandy also has a competent offensive leader in senior Kyle Shurmur, the son of Giants head coach Pat Shurmur. The younger Shurmur has been the starter the past two seasons and showed a lot of growth and development last season. He appears ready to carry the Vandy offense on his shoulders, and he made need to with many of the team’s top skill players exhausting their eligibility after last season.
One thing I know for sure about Middle Tennessee’s defense is that they will be aggressive under defensive coordinator Scott Shafer, who made great strides with this unit last season. The Raiders will blitz early and often. With several capable pass rushers, they can be a dangerous team if they can put pressure on Shurmur. The caveat is that all that blitzing leaves the secondary exposed.
Vanderbilt may be able to counter the Middle Tennessee pressure with an experienced offensive line. If the Commodores can keep Shurmur protected, the Middle Tennessee secondary will become vulnerable to giving up the big play. As long as they can keep Shurmur protected against the Middle Tennessee blitz, the Vandy offense should have success moving the ball and finding the end zone.
In the end, this game is all about Mason preparing his defense and a veteran Vandy offensive line playing up to their abilities. If the Commodores can win the battle in those two areas, there’s no reason why they won’t be able to hold off Middle Tennessee and secure a win that also covers the 3-point spread.
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