The college football media does a good job of giving leeway to 1st-year head coaches. After all, what better way to make the over-hyped, over-dramatic situation worse than by hammering skippers in their 1st years.
But handicappers can afford no such luxury. We must consider whether a new coach is doing a good job right away. After all, cash money is at stake.
Rookie head coach Dana Dimel’s UTEP has been narrowly losing games. The Miners lost by 9 points last week and 7 points the weekend before, and only gave up 24 points to Tennessee.
But that’s not enough to make UTEP any less than a 4-score underdog to powerful North Texas on college football betting boards authored out of the American southwest and beyond.
Who: North Texas Mean Green at University of Texas El-Paso Miners
When: Saturday, October 6th, 7:30 PM EST
Where: Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
Lines: UNT (-27) at UTEP (+27) / O/U Total: (53)
The Miners are a below average offensive team. QB Ryan Metz has completed 78 of 134 passes for 874 yards with 6 touchdowns and 7 picks; Mack Leftwich (105 of 192, 1228 yards, 9 TD, 3 INT) and Kavika Johnson (23 of 42, 175 yards, 2 TD) have seen action at quarterback as well. Jeremiah Laufasa has gained 300+ yards on the ground by only reached pay dirt once. Jaquan White is currently leading the team with 38 receptions for 471 yards.
But the most important statistic: 0 wins in 5 games. Bad defensive numbers would be a close 2nd.
SB Nation on the difficulty of Dimel’s job taking over the Miners this season:
Sean Kugler lost 13 of his last 16 games as UTEP head coach. Mike Price lost 20 of his last 24*. Gary Nord lost 28 of his last 32. Each also experienced some success. Nord inherited a program that had bowled just once in three decades and pulled off an 8-4 run in his first year. Price went 8-4 in each of his first two years and briefly had the Miners ranked in both seasons. Kugler went 7-6 in his second season. These men were responsible for five bowl trips between them.
But when things begin to turn in El Paso, they turn. The Miners ranked 100th or worse in S&P+ in three of Price’s last four seasons and 122nd or worse in each of Kugler’s final three. Last fall, they fielded one of college football’s worst offenses of the 2010s — they failed to score more than 21 points even once and were held to 10 or fewer points five times. Their defense had life only if you compared it to the carcass of the offense. UTEP is proof of my “hard jobs remain hard” theory, of the fact that you’re constantly swimming against the tide even when you’re swimming well.
The school appeared to struggle finding someone who actually wanted the job, but the guy they chose made a lot of sense: if you’re looking for someone to take on one of the hardest jobs, why not bring on one of the sturdiest branches of the Snyder coaching tree?
Dimel might have come from Kansas State, but he doesn’t have P5 talent to work with at UTEP.
Seth Littrell’s Mean Green have increased their stock more than almost any other team in the country since the start of the year. They reeled off 4 straight wins, including a road triumph over Arkansas by 27 points.
UNT is more than a little disappointed after last week’s conference-opener loss to Louisiana Tech. 2 turnovers and a blocked FG attempt with 33 seconds to go, and a formerly winless season was scratched.
But the LA Tech loss is likely to simply be a bump in the road, at least as far as C-USA competition goes. North Texas is ranked 31st nationally in offense and in defense – by contrast, UTEP is ranked 120th and 130th in offense and defense respectively.
There was concern over the Mean Green having to replace an upperclassman kicker, but Arkansas transfer Cole Hedlund is playing very well and has only missed 1 XP and 2 FGs in almost 40 combined attempts.
With expected gusty wind in El Paso, UNT signal-caller Mason Fine may struggle to reach his usual accuracy numbers, and the battle may turn into a power game. North Texas has a hard way to go running the ball at times, but the Mean Green defense has the potential to shut down all-comers in C-USA at the line of scrimmage…except I suppose the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.
Since running the ball isn’t the Mean Green’s forte, you can’t necessarily trust Mason Fine to carry the team to a 40-point blow-out on the road in windy conditions.
However, it’s likely that UNT will rely on its truly “mean” defense and benefit from field position thanks to superior special teams and bigger, faster players in their 2-deep roster.
I’m expecting a “low scoring blow-out” to the tune of 27-3 or 35-14. The point spread isn’t safe to wager, but try the under (53) for a high-percentage play.