We’ve been making sure to preview all of the big shots in 2019 FBS football here at BetFirm. There’s Ohio State, a team which I believe ought to be ranked #1 at the moment, and of course Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame – those programs we’ve witnessed competing in the College Football Playoff lately.
There’s another side to college pigskin, though, and it’s just as interesting for the handicapper. Like the scenario the Miami Dolphins face in the NFL right now, just when can you say a school has hit rock bottom on the gridiron?
UConn feels like a candidate. A nomadic program thought to be leaving the American Athletic Conference very soon, Connecticut already has little to play for in a very difficult league. Players might be getting the notion that things are headed south. The Huskies made Brandon Peters of Illinois look like Sonny Jurgenson in a 31-23 defeat to open the season. Indiana and UCF each then dismissed UConn with a yawn. Only a 24-21 squeaker over Wagner of the FCS in August has kept the Huskies out of the winless ranks.
It won’t get any easier when Connecticut welcomes USF this weekend, a team that will challenge the Huskies on offense, defense, and special teams.
South Florida’s status as either a potential powerhouse alongside UCF or just a flaky mid-major outfit is open to debate. But the Bulls certainly qualify as a legitimate AAC rival with 2-deep athletes…similar in size and speed to the kind of squads that have been blowing out Saturday’s hosts. And yet the point spread has tightened a bit with a few days’ worth of betting action.
Seems not everyone trusts USF any more than they trust UConn.
Who: South Florida Bulls at Connecticut Huskies
When: Saturday, October 5th, 12 PM EST
Where: Pratt & Whitney Stadium, East Hartford, CT
Lines: USF (-11) at UConn (+11) / O/U Total: (51)
I was extremely lucky with my UCF-UConn pick last week, which was Connecticut-to-cover a 42-point spread. Thankfully the Over/Under out of Las Vegas was conservative and so I did not recommend an “Under” wager to Saturday gamblers even though my idea was that Josh Heupel would stop playing roulette with his offense and settle down with a nice ball-control victory.
Instead, it turned into a track meet. Central Florida’s athletes completely overwhelmed the field and the opponent from the beginning, a statement-win after losing to Pittsburgh in an unexpected nightmare of a 4th quarter:
The Huskies should have left for the Big East at halftime.
There’s been talk that UConn might eventually discontinue football when it does make the move to the basketball-only Big East next season, but it appears the Huskies have already checked out. That wasn’t a football team UConn fielded Saturday night; it was a sacrificial lamb that enabled UCF to atone for the loss to Pitt. A few years ago, UConn’s former coach Bob Diaco tried to start a rivalry with UCF and even had a “Civil Conflict” trophy made for the occasion. This was no Civil Conflict; this was an uncivil seal-clubbing. By halftime, UCF led 42-0, the defense had forced four turnovers, quarterback Dillon Gabriel had thrown for 289 yards and three TDs, receiver Gabe Davis had 5 catches for 119 yards and three TDs and Adrian Killins tacked on a 75-yard touchdown run.
Connecticut is more than just bad – the Huskies are silly sometimes. Civil Conflict? If that’s not a tasteless take on the Civil War between North and South, then it makes no sense because Orlando and Hartford have no natural historical rivalry or connection beyond a few commuting professors and such. Was there a Whalers-Panthers game in 1993 everyone is still upset about? The Panthers don’t play in Orlando, anyway.
UConn played OK in the loss to Illinois. Jack Zergiotis produced nearly 300 yards passing, but couldn’t find the end zone as the offense was stunted at the line of scrimmage and the defense prone to bad coverage on its own end of the field. The mark of a bad team is often a lack of improvement from Weeks 1 and 2 onward while others do improve.
So why is USF an (-11) point favorite and shrinking, since the Bulls have proven in rivalry games to be as athletic on the gridiron as other big-time Sunshine State teams? Mostly because Charlie Strong’s seat is nuclear-hot right now. The Bulls lost to Vanderbilt 2.0 (Georgia Tech) 14-10 in early September, were stomped by Wisconsin, and have managed only a win over the FCS – just like the Connecticut Huskies. QB Blake Barnett clearly had the better day of 2 quarterbacks against SMU in the Bulls’ last outing, but Strong is stubbornly going with Jordan McCloud anyway.
Isn’t there a line from a book or movie or something? Better be glad your coach plays favorites, McCloud!
This game won’t be pretty, and South Florida has burned me on “gimme” favorites’ lines to-cover ATS in the past.
But the Bulls tend to choke under bright lights – not on a nondescript Saturday at noon against a host that might as well be “FCS Opponent #6” on a video game at this point.
A road trip will be good for a speedy team with an embattled head coach like USF…and the visitors will prevail by 2 or 3 touchdowns in a ragged blooper-bowl.
South Florida to cover (-11).