USC vs Utah: Week 4 Pac-12 Preview and Las Vegas Lines

There are probably quite a few college football pundits who expected Southern Cal to be 3-0 after 3 games of a schedule that has included 2 Mountain West opponents and a diminished Stanford team.

The Trojans are not 3-0, however, having lost to the BYU Cougars in a dramatic OT contest on Saturday.

That’s a good way to find yourself an underdog against a powerful (and unbeaten) squad like Utah in Week 4.

It’s not as if the Utes (I’m still waiting for a Utah coach to do a My Cousin Vinny turn and introduce a pair of student-athletes as “these 2 Utes”) have played a top-notch Power-5 schedule. But the Pac-12 contenders have answered every call through 12 quarters.

There’s only those equal Las Vegas records to hold the point spread close for the teams’ meeting at the Coliseum on Friday night. USC and visiting Utah are each 1-2 ATS.

Who: Utah Utes at University of Southern Cal Trojans

When: Friday, September 20th, 9 PM EST

Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA

Lines: Utah (-4.5) at USC (+4.5) / O/U Total: (53.5)

USC vs Utah Betting Preview & Vegas Odds

There is no worse turn of fate for a pigskin team than to be a train on the tracks for months, even years headed in a certain direction, and then try to switch to a different course just as the season starts.

For instance, former USC quarterback Matt Leinart had posted an 8-8 record with the Arizona Cardinals as of the offseason Kurt Warner retired from the NFL. Leinart took 1st-team snaps throughout training camp and preseason, and suddenly then-Cardinals HC Ken Whisenhunt got a bug up his shirt about the ex-Trojan star. Whisenhunt quickly phased-out Leinart – who in truth probably muttered something rude or petty within earshot of the head coach – and replaced him with a collection of the worst NFL quarterbacks you’ve ever seen. Of course the lousy season (and Whisenhunt’s slow, epic fall from the top tier of Shield coaches) wasn’t really the fault of the other QBs on the roster – the train was taken off the tracks by a self-destructive skipper at the last moment.

Not that USC coach Clay Helton is necessarily making a mistake that drastic. In fact, Helton could do absolutely nothing about former starting QB J.T. Daniels going down for the year with a torn ligament.

But perhaps the program is just a little bit too eager to put all kinds of responsibility in the hands of freshman QB Kedon Slovis.

Slovis was excellent in the Week 2 win over Stanford, connecting with WR Tyler Vaughns for 100+ yards and hitting targets with such accuracy that USC didn’t even need more than a token running game – almost every throw was like an extended hand-off.

Perhaps overconfident in the new starter, Southern Cal’s coaching staff allowed another 34 pass attempts from Slovis against Brigham Young…and the other shoe dropped:

Kedon Slovis wowed USC fans and garnered national media attention following his performance against Stanford. Just a week later, the rookie quarterback returned to Earth in Provo. Slovis’ mistakes Saturday ultimately proved to be too costly for the Trojans in their 30-27 overtime loss to BYU.

Slovis was 24 of 33 for 281 yards in his second start for USC with two touchdowns and three interceptions. The true freshman’s third interception during overtime was the dagger that sealed the Trojans’ fate. Slovis intended the pass for freshman wide receiver Drake London, but BYU cornerback Dayan Ghanwoloku came down with the ball.

The Trojans will try to bounce back quickly as they face the Utes on short rest in the Coliseum Friday. The matchup will feature USC’s first Pac-12 South opponent of the season and is likely to be a game that helps determine the southern division.

The best medicine for a green QB and a turnover-prone offense is a strong D that helps the signal-caller feel like he can afford to be patient. But the 5.2 yards per carry allowed to MWC tailback Ty’Son Williams last week calls the Southern Cal defense into question headed into Friday.

As for Utah, it’s hard to handicap a team that hasn’t played a Power-5 opponent yet. But the 10th-ranked Utes shined against common-opponent BYU in Week 1 as the OL blew open holes for Zack Moss in a 30-12 victory.

In Week 3 the Utes met Northern Illinois, another Group of 5 team with Power-5 level ability. Utah fell behind in the 1st half, then roared 35-17 behind a superbly accurate passing day from Tyler Huntley.

Point Spread and O/U Predictions for USC vs Utah 

Utah is blocking better than USC, and tackling better on-average than the Trojans. Those kinds of fundamental advantages are probably good for more than (4.5) points.

But I’m as interested in the Over (53.5) as the ATS wager on the visiting Utes.

USC will enjoy a boost to its own pass rush and friendly home-field support for its own OL, and Slovis has more raw talent than any QB on the Utes roster.

The elements of chaos and an angry USC squad looking for redemption could lead to big plays from all 6 units on the gridiron. I’m not convinced that the offenses of both teams will combine for 55+ points, but add short-field turnovers and razzle-dazzle on special teams, and you’ve got a 60% winner on the Over.

Take Utah-to-cover and/or the high side of the O/U on Friday night.

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