The no. 15 USC Trojans will look to start their 2018 season on a positive note when they play host to the UNLV Rebels. Game time is scheduled for 4:00 EST on Saturday, September 1, at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Fans can watch the game on the Pac-12 Network.
Oddsmakers list the Trojans as 25-point favorites. However, that line has shrunk a little after USC opened as 31.5-point favorites. The over/under is set at 62.5 points. Click here to check out a full list of college football odds.
The Trojans began last season with aspirations to win a national title. Despite going 11-3 and winning a Pac-12 title, USC fell well short of that goal. Preseason expectations are a little more tempered this year after losing a number of key players to the NFL, most notably quarterback Sam Darnold. However, USC fans always expect the team to be nationally relevant, so this young Trojans team is going to have to grow up fast.
UNLV, on the other hand, is still in the rebuilding process. Tony Sanchez has yet to translate his incredible success at the high school level to the college level. However, there has been incremental progress in each of his three seasons with the Rebels. UNLV went 5-7 last year, an improvement from 4-8 the previous season. That means the Rebels will be expected to take another step forward in 2018 and become bowl eligible.
On paper, this looks like an easy win for USC. But the Trojans need to make sure they don’t look past UNLV, which is tempting with a road trip to Stanford next week. The Rebels know a thing or two about looking past teams, as they lost to FCS opponent Howard in their season opener last year despite being 45-point favorites. They can only hope USC does the same to them this season.
With the line to this game falling, I have to lean toward USC. There are a few things to like about UNLV, as well as a few reasons to be concerned about the Trojans. However, the talent gap between these two teams is immense. Over 60 minutes, I just don’t think the Rebels can keep up. They lost by over 30 points to both Ohio State and San Diego State last year, and they’ll open the 2018 season by doing the same against USC.
If UNLV has any chance in this game, it’ll be because of quarterback Armani Rogers. The Los Angeles native was Mountain West Freshman of the Year last year and one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. However, at the moment, he’s far more dangerous as a runner than a passer. Rogers completed just 52% of his passes last year, with six touchdowns and five interceptions. You can beat some Mountain West teams like that, but not USC.
The Rebels were one of the best rushing teams in the country last season, largely because of Rogers and running back Lexington Thomas, who averaged 6.3 yards per carry. Those two are bound to have a little bit of success against USC. But unless Rogers can prove he can beat USC with his arm, the Trojans will start loading the box and daring Rogers to throw. The USC defense was a little vulnerable against the pass last year, and the secondary will have to prove itself this season. However, the Rebels may not be the kind of team that can take advantage of a leaky USC secondary.
On the other side of the ball, the Rebels should be worried about their defense being able to stop USC. They were gashed repeatedly last season, particularly on the ground. UNLV also struggled to generate much of a pass rush, which is a huge problem. If it matters, they return seven starters from a year ago. However, the four starters who don’t return were among their best defensive players, so this will be a defense still struggling to find playmakers.
Perhaps more importantly, the UNLV defense will be lacking in talent compared to the USC offense. Of course, the Trojans will be starting true freshman J.T. Daniels at quarterback. They also have to replace both their leading rusher and top receiver from last year. However, the Trojans always have a new crop of skill players who are eager to get their hands on the ball and prove themselves. Perhaps more importantly, USC returns four starters along the offensive line. That should help them to beat UNLV in the trenches and take some of the pressure off Daniels.
The Rebels may be able to make some plays with their dynamic rushing attack, allowing them to stay competitive early in the game. But their defense doesn’t have much of a chance to consistently get stops against the USC offense. Even with a young quarterback and a new set of playmakers, the Trojans will put a lot of points on the scoreboard against a lackluster UNLV defense. In the end, USC will score enough to cover the 25-point spread.