The No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide take on the No. 20 USC Trojans on Saturday, September 3rd in arguably the biggest opening game of Week 1. This will be the first meeting between these teams since 1985, which saw the Crimson Tide win 24-3 in the Aloha Bowl.
Alabama is coming off its 4th national title in the last seven years. It went 14-1 overall last season. It dominated Michigan State 38-0 in the opener of the four-game playoff, then won a 45-40 thriller over Clemson in the championship game.
USC managed to go just 8-6 in 2015 in what was a year of turmoil. Steve Sarkisian was fired midseason, which led to interim coach Clay Helton guiding the men of Troy for the final few games. The Trojans did not finish well, losing 22-41 to Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship and 21-23 to Wisconsin in the Holiday Bowl.
Kickoff inside AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas is scheduled for 8:00 EST Saturday night with ABC providing the television coverage. Taking a look at the odds in Las Vegas, I find Alabama as an 11.5-point favorite over USC with a total set of 54 points.
Alabama is making its case as the best dynasty ever in college football. Head coach Nick Saban simply doesn’t settle for anything less than the best, and his players certainly reflect that mentality on the field. I expect the Crimson Tide to get off to a great start this season in defending their national championship, which was their fourth in the past seven years.
The Crimson Tide always lose a ton of talent to the NFL, which is why it’s not concerning that they return just 11 starters this season. They only had 10 back last year and won it all. They also have had no problem replacing their starting quarterback, so that’s not a concern either. Saban gets the best recruits in the country, so often times the new starters are better than the previous ones.
Alabama’s QB competition is down to two in junior Cooper Bateman and freshman Blake Barnett. Whoever wins the job should do just fine after this offense put up 35.1 points per game last year with just three starters back. Now the offense has six starters back in 2016. Each of the top three receivers return from last year, as do three starters and 64 career starts along the offensive line, which should be one of the best in the country.
Defensively, Alabama gave up just 15.1 points and 276 yards per game last year. In fact, the Crimson Tide have allowed 15.1 or fewer points per game in six of the past seven seasons with a high mark of 18.4. Even with only five starters back on D, this will once again be one of the best stop units in the land.
USC does have 10 starters back on offense but will be breaking in a new starting quarterback. The loss of Cody Kessler is a big one. I think junior Max Brown should be fine with the weapons he has around him, but it’s going to be tough having his first career start against this Alabama defense.
But where I think this game will be won is Alabama’s running game up against an inexperienced front seven for the Trojans, who bring back just one starter among their front seven.
But where I think this game will be won is Alabama’s running game up against an inexperienced front seven for the Trojans, who bring back just one starter among their front seven. They have to replace their entire defensive line and two of three linebackers with sophomore Cameron Smith their only returning starters. If you’re not strong in the trenches defensively, you have no chance against Alabama.
Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ALABAMA) – solid team from last season – outscored opponents by 10 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
The defending national champion is 17-0 in its last 17 seasons openers with an average victory of 44-15. This will be the fifth straight season Alabama opens on a neutral site, and it’s 4-0 with an average win of 20 points per game in the previous four. The Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last five season openers. The Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games.