I made a classic mistake in handicapping the Air Force Falcons prior to their mid-October scrum with UNLV last season. I forgot that no matter how stout and sturdy a service academy defense may look in a game, or in a stretch of games, the other shoe can always drop. Average FBS offenses can abuse an academy D when clicking.
The handicappers in Las Vegas know that, which is why betting odds for Army, Navy, and Air Force tend to fluctuate and change from week to week and from Monday morning to kickoff.
Take an academy lightly at your own peril. They run the rock very well, stay disciplined, and never give up. But the effective Flexbone offenses from West Point, Annapolis and Colorado Springs have a tricky side to them when it comes to handicapping. The offenses make the teams – especially the defensive and kicking units – look better than they actually are, and the squads can disappoint bettors when touted too-highly against ranked opponents.
Perhaps the same syndrome causes the schools to be over-valued against cupcakes, too. UNLV faces the ignominy of being a double-digit underdog at home this Friday night…against a team from their own conference with an identical 2-4 record.
Who: Air Force Falcons at University of Nevada Las Vegas Rebels
When: Friday, October 19th, 10 PM EST
Where: Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Lines: AF (-13) at UNLV (+13) / O/U Total: (56)
The Falcons’ opening win over Stony Brook was more or less routine, and was the prelude to an o-3 start in the Mountain West. Air Force gave up almost 500 yards of offense and didn’t get much production out of the QB spot, an even more key component in the Falcon offense than a normal QB chair, in a 10-point loss to Utah State. Similar frustrations were felt against Nevada as the unit rushed for 3.0 ypc (a disaster for an option team) and couldn’t throw worth a lick either in a 28-25 defeat.
San Diego State beat Air Force last weekend in a dramatic contest that was predictably low-scoring, thanks to the Falcons’ inability to put a backfield together, and the Aztecs’ inability to keep one healthy.
But in the non-conference schedule, the academy has played much better. The Falcons whipped the heck out of Navy by several scores and played hard-hitting football in a 33-27 loss to Florida Atlantic.
Where are they headed at QB? Not back to Donald Hammond III, who was injured in the SDSU scrum:
Air Force shouldn’t be without starting quarterback Donald Hammond III for more than a few weeks, The Gazette has learned. The sophomore suffered a high ankle sprain early in Friday’s 21-17 loss at San Diego State, leaving the field on a cart in a scary moment that left Air Force fans to fear it could be a broken bone or a damaged knee.
There is no time frame for Hammond’s return, but it would seem possible he could be available for an Oct. 27 home game against Boise State or the next week for the Falcons’ showdown at Army with the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy guaranteed to reside on the campus of the winner for the next year. So, there’s that bit of good news that Air Force can take from a trip to San Diego that was otherwise filled with more of the same frustrations. Each loss this season has seen the Falcons (2-4, 0-3 Mountain West) lead in the fourth quarter or have the ball, trailing by six points or fewer.
On Friday, the Falcons coughed up a first-half lead in the final seconds when San Diego State blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown. Then, after regaining the lead in the fourth quarter on Ronald Cleveland’s second touchdown, San Diego State drove 94 yards for the go-ahead touchdown. Before that drive, San Diego State (5-1, 2-0) had just 148 yards of offense and was 0-for-9 on third downs against a stout Air Force defensive that included a safety for Jordan Jackson (though it was officially credited as a team sack), an interception for Jeremy Fejedelem and an effort against the run that held the Aztecs to 84 yards on 34 carries.
Good run defense – that’s good news. Except it’s easier to play good run defense against the Aztec JV squad than the “Varsity” lineup with Christian Chapman at the helm.
There’s not a lot of good news for BetFirm’s favorite “home” team. The hosts have lost 3 in a row, including 2 lopsided losses and a 24-27 upset at the hands of Arkansas State.
But I’m not convinced UNLV is a (+13) underdog in reality. Remember that against less-burly defenses like Air Force, an offense that isn’t athletic compared to Alabama or Oklahoma can still win the line of scrimmage, just as the Rebels won on the line for 3 quarters before Air Force came back to win last season.
UNLV rushed for 7+ yards per carry against USC in Week 1. If they can do that, they can potentially rush for 10+ yards a pop vs Air Force at Sam Boyd Stadium.
Air Force should be the moneyline favorite, but not a 2-touchdown favorite on the spread. This is apt to be a dogfight between 2 desperate schools. Take the Rebels to cover (+13).