After keeping their undefeated season alive at SMU, the UCF Knights (8-0) take on the UConn Huskies (3-6) this Saturday. These two AAC teams will take the field in Orlando for a noon EST start from Bright House Networks Stadium. The game can be viewed on ESPNU.
UCF’s spread potential seemed to have fallen off a bit after their last two games ended in ATS losses. But they come into this game as 38 ½-point favorites.
McKenzie Milton had his worst game against SMU, but he’s been electric at home, completing 80 of 105 passes for 12 touchdowns and only a pair of INTs. He’ll get a lot of help from Adrian Killins, a sophomore who had seemed to hit his ceiling, but only raised the roof last Saturday with 145 yards on 14 carries. He now has an absurd 8.6 YPC this season.
The defense is having some occasional struggles with better running teams, but they’ve still kept all but one opponent under 25 points.
For UConn, they’ll hope to keep UCF under 45. Their defense is vulnerable in all facets when it comes to teams obviously more talented than them. They didn’t scheme correctly against Missouri or USF, and UCF will be their next chance to reverse the trends that’ve plagued them.
The other side of the ball hasn’t been helping them out much either. None of their four primary rushers have broken over 4.5 YPC, and they only have 3.4 YPC as a whole. Bryant Shirreffs had been improving as a thrower, but he’s out with a concussion for Saturday’s game. Not much looks good for the Huskies.
Even with UCF’s two-week ATS drought, it’s hard going against them. Expecting them to win by 39 points seems crazy. But two teams (Memphis and Missouri) have beaten UConn by at least that much.
This is a perfect Vegas setup, because UCF played down on the road last week and UConn held back USF for the spread win. But the Bulls have simply not been putting things together, so the Huskies keeping it closer-than-expected isn’t all that impressive.
UCF is dynamite at home, and UConn being 3-11 ATS over their last 14 games has only increased this number. With Sherriffs out and UConn’s defense struggling mightily, expecting them to lose by 39 points isn’t all that much of a stretch. The Knights probably won’t even need their season average (48.5 PPG) to cover.
The Huskies QB was one of the only bright spots thy had. Hergy Mayala is a talented receiver, but unless backup QB David Pindell suddenly turns it on, they won’t be able to utilize their No.1 WR.
USF’s speed eventually burned the Huskies, and UCF moves just as fast and with better balance on offense. Milton is a legitimate star, Killins is probably the best RB in the conference, and they have an offensive line (only seven sacks allowed) who can prevent a pretty good Husky pass-rush (19 sacks).
There’s not a strength of UConn that the Knights can’t cover, and they have very few weaknesses for the Huskies to exploit. It’s going to be a nightmare of a day for the road team.