I feel like in a weird way, the pressure is off the Central Florida Knights now.
It was last November when the Knights took on SMU in Texas in what was to be a tense 31-24 result for the unbeaten favorites. Ben Hicks – still at Southern Methodist – had almost 300 passing yards as McKenzie Milton struggled with 2 picks.
But the scrum occurred in a media firestorm. Would UCF somehow reach the College Football Playoff? Would Scott Frost remain the rest of the season? (As it turns out, he did…wisely.)
The Knights are veterans of their own multi-year winning streak now. A home game against a conference rival doesn’t come with as much of a trap-factor. That’s reflected in the betting odds for Saturday’s prime-time rematch with SMU.
Who: Southern Methodist Mustangs at Central Florida Knights
When: Saturday, October 6th, 7 PM EST
Where: Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando, FL
Lines: SMU (+24) vs UCF (-24) / O/U Total: (75)
Obviously the O/U total jumps off the page. Can either of these 2 offenses be shut down for more than a quarter or 2 at a time?
SMU is 2-3 to start the year, but it’s not a terrible 2-3. Their losses are to TCU, Michigan, and North Texas. 2 of those teams are in the top 20, and the Mean Green are no slouches themselves.
Head coach Sonny Dykes has flip flopped between Hicks and freshman William Brown at QB this season. Brown started the game against Navy but it was Hicks who came in to lead the team to a overtime TD and game winning 2-point conversion to vanquish the Mids.
Brown got the nod again last week against Houston Baptist and had a monster game, possibly solidifying his spot as the QB for the foreseeable future. Braeden West leads the rushing attack with 343 yards and 4 TDs and junior James Proche leads all WRs with 5 TDs on the year, but they need more output from the rest of the receiving core to help take pressure off Brown.
The Mustangs rank badly in both passing yards allowed and rushing yards allowed, 80th and 102nd respectively. Those numbers cast doubt on the Mustangs’ ability to slow down UCF when without the ball, especially since Milton is a more-developed QB this time around.
That noted, SMU generally fields a competitive defense. This year the unit has simply not been as effective. They did have a fine bounce back game last week, allowing only 301 total yards to Houston Baptist. But the edge-rush needs to find the mark more often if they are going to hold teams down. SMU has 5 sacks on the season.
The self-proclaimed “2017 National Champion” UCF Knights are rolling, and Milton is the figurehead of the bandwagon. He’s 21-6 thus far in his college career and all of those losses came in 2016. He has 13 passing TDs to only 3 interceptions as well as almost 200 rushing yards and 5 TDs on the ground in ’18, making him one of the best dual-threat QBs in the nation production-wise as well as in pure speed and quickness.
The Knights have cruised to a fresh 4-0 record and hope not to slow down anytime soon. WR Gabriel Davis is Milton’s favorite target, and has defied expectations by retaining a ton of discipline and chemistry with teammates despite roster turnover and Frost’s absence.
Don’t forget the UCF defense. The Knights have the 2nd-ranked passing defense in the nation and rank 11th in points allowed. What’s more, the group is gobbling up turnovers like Hungry Hippos:
Richie Grant is becoming Mr. Turnover for the UCF defense, and don’t think for a second that he isn’t counting the thefts. “Three interceptions, four turnovers … I got a forced fumble, too,” Grant said Saturday after picking off his third pass of the season during UCF’s 45-14 dismantling of Pittsburgh at Spectrum Stadium.
Grant has become a huge playmaker for the UCF defense during his redshirt sophomore season. The safety’s upbeat personality is contagious, but his play is even more catchy. He is tied for No. 2 nationally in interceptions, and UCF also is tied for No. 4 nationally in team interceptions with eight. The turnovers are what really get this UCF defense fired up, as Grant will attest.
“We love it. We’re all ball hungry, so anybody who gets a turnover knows you’re gonna get your head slapped a couple times … might get concussion protocol if you get it slapped too hard,” Grant dead-panned while referring to the team’s celebration after a takeaway. “I love it ’cause I know our team needs it. Every time we get a turnover, I know it’s points for our offense because we’ve got a quick-scoring offense,” Grant said.
That, ladies and gentlemen, is the sound of preparation and confidence. Grant also has 33 total tackles, while teammate Nate Evans had 11 last week.
I’m liking UCF to win by 28-42 points and cover the spread. The under could also have value as the Mustang offense is liable to have a much-harder row to hoe this season against a polished and physical host in Orlando.