Maybe it’s time to take UCF seriously as more than just a 1-year wonder.
The Central Florida Knights play in a tough conference, the American Athletic. Some pundits believe that the league is at least as strong as the least-powerful of the Power-5 conferences (either the Pac-12 or the Big 12 depending on which fan base they’d rather offend) and extremely difficult to emerge from unscathed. The UCF Knights also don’t schedule only patsies in their OOC slate, as evidenced by their upcoming match-up with FAU.
Yet look at the results – UCF hasn’t lost a football game since falling to the Arkansas State Red Wolves in the AutoNation Cure Bowl in 2016. The unbeaten run includes wins over Maryland, Navy, Memphis, USF, and of course Auburn in last season’s Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl. Hurricane Florence postponed last weekend’s planned UCF vs North Carolina contest, but that hasn’t stopped the Knights from out-scoring their first 2 2018-19 opponents 94-17 and taking a #16 AP ranking into Week 4.
Florida Atlantic, meanwhile, had its Lane Kiffin-fueled hype train derailed in Week 1 as the Owls fell out of the tree against Oklahoma, losing by almost 50 points. But FAU rebounded to win its next 2 games and can regain some type of upward momentum with a win over a Top 25 school.
College football odds-managers and bettors are skeptical that it will happen, as heavy action on UCF-to-cover has driven the point spread wider since betting opened at (-13).
Who: Florida Atlantic Owls at University of Central Florida Knights
When: Friday, September 21st, 7 PM EST
Where: Spectrum Stadium, Orlando, FL
Lines: FAU (-13.5) at UCF (+13.5) / O/U Total: (71)
When former head coach Scott Frost left for Nebraska, many Power-5 partisans likely concluded that UCF wasn’t going to go anywhere without him – just as Western Michigan has been fading back into obscurity following the departure of now-Minnesota Golden Gophers skipper P.J. Fleck.
Not the case. In fact, Frost hasn’t won a game since leaving UCF. It’s the Knights’ speed, talent, and brawn up front that is responsible for the team’s amazing unbeaten streak. Not that Frost didn’t coach a masterpiece against Auburn on New Year’s, but the squad appears to be fine without him.
FAU coach Lane Kiffin, eyes darting around the room for student-athletes from other schools he can talk into transferring, told the Palm Beach Post this week that Central Florida, led by dual-threat signal-caller McKenzie Milton, doesn’t look like a mid-major:
“Height, weight, speed, the players, the size of the guys,” Kiffin said. “It’s like playing an SEC opponent.”
Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia all play in the SEC. Kiffin was Alabama’s offensive coordinator from 2014-16, winning the 2015 National Championship before becoming FAU’s head coach in Dec. 2016.
The Knights are led by an SEC-caliber quarterback in Milton, who finished 7th in the Heisman Trophy voting last season. Milton was 24-of-32 for 346 yards and five touchdowns in a week zero win at UConn last month, but struggled in a Sept. 8 win over South Carolina State, throwing three interceptions and completing only 53.8 percent of his passes.
Still, Kiffin isn’t taking Milton lightly, especially not after the junior threw for 242 yards and two touchdowns in last year’s Sugar Bowl win over Auburn.
“Really great touch, makes a ton of plays out of rhythm, scrambling around,” Kiffin said. “Really, really special player. He made so many plays down the stretch and (there were) some tight games where he made some huge plays.”
I don’t know that I’d use “SEC caliber quarterback” as the ultimate praise, considering that there are still lousy starting QBs knocking around the conference. Milton is a QB who could play for almost any top-10 team. The Knights play excellent defense and know how to get to the opposing passer, too.
But FAU’s Devin Singletary is a running back who could play for anybody, including NFL teams.
Kiffin’s Owls would be considered an underdog to win a “Florida State Championship” tournament of NCAA teams. But not because of a weakness at running back. Singletary rushed for 4.4 ypc and scored 5 touchdowns last weekend.
However, the Owls haven’t been doing a great job of blocking for the junior from Deerfield Beach. Oklahoma contained him in a blow-out for the Sooners, which is understandable. But the under-sized Air Force Falcons held the tailback to just 57 yards in Week 2, forcing QB Chris Robison to pick up the slack. Robison had a career day as the Owls won 33-27.
Inconsistent defense is also an issue. FAU thought it finally had a blow-out win in the bag after scoring almost 30 points in the 1st quarter against Bethune-Cookman last weekend, but the Wildcats scored 2 touchdowns in the 2nd quarter as the Owls gave up almost 5 yards per carry to an FCS also-ran.
I’m liking UCF to cover as long as the spread doesn’t extend to (-14). If it does, a push (returned wager on an exactly-matched spread) is a real possibility.
The under (71) is also a good wager, as Kiffin will likely try to control the ball with FAU’s ground game and short passes…with limited success. UCF will be glad to gobble up rushing yards once off to a solid lead.