Say what you will about Central Florida, but you’ve got to give the Knights credit. The program just has a flair for the dramatic…and almost never in the tragic sense.
I have never felt that the American Athletic Conference was as deep of a league or as high of a competitive ceiling as the SEC, ACC, or Big Ten. However, my argument throughout UCF’s stint in the Top 25 (and the same goes for the Boise State Broncos btw) has been that handicappers make a mistake when thinking or saying “UCF from the American East” or “UCF from the Group-of-5.”
UCF may not play in the Power-5, but the Knights are a Power-5 level contender. Josh Heupel’s team bears no resemblance to any of the trademark weak spots of G5 win-hoarders who never beat the big guys. Drop them in a division with a bunch of mid-tier ACC programs and they’d win it most of the time, despite that little accident against Pittsburgh that helped motivate last week’s slaughter of UConn.
Cincinnati is getting downgraded by pundits along with the Knights, for the Bearcats lost 42-0 to Ohio State on September 7th. But make no mistake, each school could still affect the New Year’s Six bowl picture by the end. Each surprise loss (well, Cincy’s “surprise” wasn’t losing to Ohio State but rather getting shut-out and looking hapless) happened under tough circumstances. Heck, Central Florida has pretty much defined “tough circumstances” after losing McKenzie Milton, the program’s cornerstone player, to an injury in late ’18.
Let’s take a look back at last season’s UCF-Cincinnati tout and see what lessons we can learn headed into this week’s “Friday Night Lights” rematches of the NCAA slate.
Just because I made the correct *picks* in ’18 doesn’t equal having made an accurate prediction. I never dreamed that the November scrum in Orlando would turn into a blow-out.
Who: UCF Knights at Cincinnati Bearcats
When: Friday, October 4th, 8 PM EST
Where: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Lines: UCF (-5) at Cincy (+5) / O/U Total: (60)
BetFirm was able to guess correctly ATS and on the Over/Under when these titans of the AAC met last autumn. But forget all that humble-bragging about a handicapper finding the right “number.” In this case I had gotten only a couple of things right, not really including the vibe of the game itself.
UCF covered alright – but would also deal Cincy an ugly loss in what is threatening to become a string of “marquee” memorable defeats for the Bearcats. Central Florida has already had to deal with heartbreak against the Power-5 in 2019 but hasn’t suffered a humiliation of the sort that can cause a crisis of confidence.
Not that that makes the Pittsburgh debacle any easier for Orlando to swallow. Heupel has been tinkering with all kinds of quarterbacks, and the lack of long-term stability may have finally bitten the Knights on 9/21 as Dillon Gabriel tossed 2 interceptions at Heinz Field (if it’s any consolation, lots of NFL QBs have thrown at least 2 picks in 60 minutes there) and defense proved vulnerable to the razzle-dazzle, giving up TD passes to 3 different Panthers. UCF got hot and put on a circus in the 3rd quarter but the Knights were bamboozled in the end:
The Panthers (2-2) ended UCF’s 25-game regular-season winning streak on a play head coach Pat Narduzzi called the ”Pitt Special” in a nod to the Philadelphia Eagles, who ran a similar play two seasons ago in their Super Bowl victory over the New England Patriots.
Pitt trailed by six when Pickett drove the Panthers to the UCF 3. Running back A.J. Davis took a direct snap with Pickett going in motion. Davis handed the ball to Mathews, who rolled to his right and hit Pickett in the end zone. UCF’s last-gasp drive went nowhere.
As for the Cincinnati Bearcats, the team’s rough patch happened for 1 main reason – the Ohio State Buckeyes look like the finest pigskin team in the NCAA through 5 weeks of the season.
Cincy matches-up OK with Central Florida, especially at home. Graduated stud Titus Davis landed 3 full sacks last season for UCF in the scrum – QB Desmond Ridder will not have to deal with Davis this time around.
I’m as interested in the Over as Knights-to-cover – and the betting public seems much more-interested in the 2nd possibility.
If UCF cannot destroy a rival’s OL while playing on the road, that means Cincinnati’s offense will have more room to operate than it did in the dreary Columbus loss. Cincy’s attack was also in fine form last weekend against Marshall as Ridder only whiffed on 4 passes in the 52-14 laugher. Central Florida’s powerful push on the line-of-scrimmage and the team’s moxie in the clutch could both eventually contribute to a 5-point cover…but I’d be more inclined to pick the visitors on the moneyline, frankly.
Over (60) is a wise pick however, given that each team is notoriously electric on special teams, and a circus-like battle between talented skill players will extend beyond the 2 offenses in Ohio.