A fluke. An anomaly. A shot in the dark.
Many cliches can be applied to the Tulsa Golden Hurricane’s 45-17 win over conference opponent Houston 2 Saturdays ago. But whatever the terminology, there’s no denying that the Oklahomans produced far and away their finest performance of the season.
Tulsa is 2-6 and likely headed for the AAC cellar. The team has lost 5 of its last 6, giving up 62 points in 4 quarters to Tulane at one point. But against the Cougars, RBs D’Angelo Brewer and Shamari Brooks combined for 251 yards on 41 carries, WR Keenen Johnson had 5 catches for 91 yards and a TD, and the defense intercepted UH quarterback Kyle Postma twice en route to a dominant win. Then it was back to the doldrums in a 20-14 loss to UConn.
Friday opponent Southern Methodist, in contrast, is 5-2. But they were flat against the same Houston team on 10/14, losing by 11 points. The result is that despite hosting a struggling team on a week in which they could potentially overtake Memphis for the division lead, the Mustangs are less than 10 point favorites.
Who: Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Southern Methodist University Mustangs
When: Friday, October 27th, 9 PM EST
Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park, TX
Lines: Tulsa (+9) at SMU (-9) / O/U Total: (77)
Tulsa showed that it is a legitimate AAC team – known affectionately among supporters as a “Power-6” conference – yet again with its defeat of Houston. But the Cougars aren’t what they were in 2015 or ’16 with Greg Ward at the helm, and committed 3 crucial turnovers in the contest.
Against UConn, the Hurricane rushing attack was putrid, good for only 1.6 yards per carry. That could play into the hands of the Mustangs, who do not have a superior defense but have been decent at getting off the field against below-average ground games.
With an SMU team which is choosing to run the ball more than it throws (44/37 run-pass ratio in the 31-28 win over Cincy last weekend) and a Tulsa unit that is more stubborn than prolific, the O/U total of (77) seems very high.
We like the SMU Mustangs to play well and cover at home, but it’s only a 1-unit bet. If you’d like to kick off your weekend with a big gamble, look at the under. This is likely to be a more cautious game than bookies think, and a bet on under (77) points has at least a 60% chance of paying off.