The no. 23 South Florida Bulls put their undefeated record on the line Friday night as they visit the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes. Game time is set for 7:00 EST on Friday, October 12, at Chapman Stadium in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The game can be seen nationally on ESPN.
The Bulls have opened as 7.5-point road favorites in this game with an over/under of 62.5 points. Be sure to check out a complete listing of the Week 7 college football odds.
South Florida is one of three undefeated teams left in the American Athletic Conference. Getting to 5-0 after last week’s win over UMass was enough to get the Bulls into the top-25. However, it’s fair to question the schedule they’ve played thus far. They have wins over Georgia Tech, a 3-3 ACC team, and Illinois, a 3-2 Big Ten team, giving them two victories over power conference teams. But even those wins aren’t all that impressive.
Nevertheless, South Florida is undefeated and currently sharing the AAC East division with two other unbeaten teams in Central Florida and Cincinnati. That means they can’t afford to lose a game to a team like Tulsa if they hope to keep pace with those two teams, who they will meet head-to-head in November.
As for the Golden Hurricanes, they are losers of four straight games, putting them at 1-4 on the season. In their defense, Tulsa has put up a fight in every game and played a difficult schedule, including road games against Texas and Houston. However, that doesn’t change the fact that they are 1-4 and on the road to repeating last season’s 2-10 record.
Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery is surely starting to feel the heat. The Golden Hurricanes will need to win five of their last seven games to qualify for a bowl. Seeing as how they will probably be underdogs in most of those games, that’s a tough task. Even if a bowl game is out of reach, Tulsa needs a few more wins to save Montgomery’s job and salvage their season.
Despite the Golden Hurricanes going 2-10 last season, they played a competitive 27-20 game against South Florida, albeit in a losing effort. That game may give Tulsa some hope that they can knock off the Bulls at home this time around.
I’m still not convinced that South Florida is worthy of a top-25 spot. They’ve rarely won by a comfortable margin this season, and even the power conference teams they’ve beaten are borderline bowl teams at best. That being said, they should be able to overwhelm Tulsa, a team that fights hard but doesn’t have the horses to keep up with the Bulls. I’ll swallow the points and lean toward South Florida to cover 7.5 points.
The USF offense looks nothing like it did a year ago. Instead of the dynamic dual-threat of Quinton Flowers at quarterback, the Bulls are rolling with Blake Barnett, a former Alabama quarterback who’s more of a pocket passer. There have been some growing pains, especially with a new set of largely inexperienced skill players surrounding Barnett.
However, I think Barnett and the USF offense are coming along. They had an offensive explosion against Georgia Tech early in the year, as well as another one last week against UMass. I think the Bulls will have another good offensive showing this week against a Tulsa team that has given up at least 27 points in every game this year.
If the Golden Hurricanes are going to keep this game close, they’ll have to score points. That could be a problem for a team averaging 21 points per game against FBS teams this season. The Golden Hurricanes are at their best offensively when they’re running the ball. However, they’re gaining less than four yards per carry this season. I don’t expect them to do much better this week against a USF defense that’s been strong against the run for most of the season.
When the USF defense has been vulnerable this year, it’s been against the pass. Most notably, they gave up over 400 yards through the air last week against UMass when giving up a season-high 42 points. Unfortunately for Tulsa, they don’t appear to have the kind of passing game that can take advantage of the USF pass defense.
Freshman Seth Boomer took the reigns for the injured Luke Skipper last week against Houston and was just 13 for 31 passing. He showed some promising flashes but the consistency wasn’t there. Completing less than 50% of your passes just isn’t going to cut it against the USF defense. Even if Skipper returns, he’s probably not the answer Tulsa needs in the passing game either.
It’s also hard to side with Tulsa in this game because of how much they’ve turned the ball over this season. During their four-game losing streak, the Golden Hurricanes have committed 13 turnovers. Even if you cut them a little slack for playing against quality defensive teams, that’s too many turnovers. If that trend continues, it’s tough to see a way the Golden Hurricanes can keep this game within a touchdown.
I don’t necessarily think the Bulls will steamroll Tulsa, especially on the road. However, I think the Golden Hurricanes will struggle to keep pace for four quarters. Between their turnovers and their inconsistency on offense, it’s tough to believe in Tulsa. South Florida should be able to win by double figures, so I’ll lean toward the Bulls to cover the 7.5-point spread.