The Tulane Green Wave hope to get their season moving in the right direction as they open conference play this week against the Memphis Tigers. Game time is set for 8:00 EST on Friday, September 28, at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans. The game will be available on ESPN2.
Oddsmakers list Memphis as a 14-point favorite on the road. That line has moved slightly after the Tigers opened the week favored by 13.5 points. Click here to see a full list of this week’s college football odds.
Tulane is coming off a humiliating 49-6 loss at the hands of Ohio State last week. That loss wouldn’t seem so bad except the Green Wave missed out on opportunities to win close games against both Wake Forest and UAB earlier this season. As a result, Tulane is just 1-3, with their only win coming against FCS opponent Nicholls State.
The Green Wave hasn’t played as poorly as their record may indicate. However, they have to win five of their eight remaining games if Willie Fritz is going to take them to a bowl game for the first time in his three seasons. That task will seem a whole lot more manageable if Tulane can pull off a home upset over Memphis.
The Tigers will also be a little disappointed with the start of their season. Despite being 3-1, Memphis lost their conference opener against Navy a few weeks ago, putting them a little behind in their quest to return to the American Athletic Conference title game.
Outside of that loss to Navy, the Tigers have taken care of business, winning three games by comfortable margins. Memphis has scored at least 52 points in each of those three wins. However, they have come against Mercer, Georgia State, and South Alabama, so their schedule thus far leaves something to be desired.
The good news for the Tigers is that they’ve dominated this series. Memphis has won 11 straight head-to-head meetings with Tulane. Only three of those 11 games came with a margin under 20 points, including a 56-26 win for the Tigers last year. The last time the Green Wave prevailed over Memphis was 2000, giving Tulane a lot of history to overcome.
I was a little reluctant to swallow the points in this game, but with the Tigers, it’s a safe bet that they’ll be able to put a lot of points on the board. That leads me to think that Memphis will eventually be able to pull away and cover. Even on the road, they should have the offensive firepower against a Tulane team that I think will struggle to keep up in a shootout.
Tulane is ranked 110th in the nation with 22.3 points per game. To some extent, that’s to be expected with two power conference opponents in their first four games. However, they managed just 17 points at home against Wake Forest, a team that has given up 97 points over the past two weeks and just fired their defensive coordinator. The Green Wave was also a little sluggish during their loss to UAB.
The problem for the Tulane offense is the lack of development by senior quarterback Jonathan Banks. He’s completed less than half of his passes this season, including a 7 for 24 performance against UAB. His offensive line isn’t giving him much help, as he’s already been sacked 14 times after only being sacked 20 times all of last season. As a result, he’s not making the kind of impact as a runner he did last year, which is holding back the Tulane offense.
Part of me thinks the Green Wave may be able to get things going offensively against Memphis. After all, the Tigers allowed 35 points against South Alabama last week and didn’t exactly stifle Georgia State the previous week. For a team with aspirations to win a conference title, I’d have expected the Tigers to do much better defensively against lesser opponents.
That being said, I still don’t see Tulane being able to take advantage of a porous Memphis defense. The Green Wave is averaging a meager 4.2 yards per rush this year. Without reliable quarterback play, Tulane won’t be able to take advantage of the Memphis defense where they’re most vulnerable, which is through the air. Even if the Green Wave can hit on a few big plays, it may not be enough to keep up with the Tigers.
The Memphis offense is absolutely rolling under new quarterback Brady White, who has completed 72% of his throws and is averaging nearly 10 yards per throw. It doesn’t hurt to have a rushing game that’s averaging better than eight yards per carry. It’s fair to question the level of competition the Tigers have faced. However, the four turnovers they committed against Navy have been the only thing to slow down the Memphis offense this season. Since the Tulane defense appears to be nothing special, I expect the Tigers to keep rolling.
I’ll admit to being a little nervous about a desperate Tulane getting 14 points at home. However, recent history tells us that the Green Wave can’t handle Memphis. The Tigers typically win comfortably against Tulane and considering the vast difference in how these teams have performed offensively this season, I expect that trend to continue, so I’ll lean toward Memphis to cover a 14-point spread.