The last time they faced the Boise Blue, the game did not go so hot for the Troy Trojans.
Brett Rypien of Boise State dazzled with accurate throws early-on when the Group of 5 stalwarts met in the 2017 opener, but he was eventually spelled by senior QB Montell Cozart. The read-option specialist led a 4th quarter death march to the Troy goal line before tossing an insurance TD for the Broncos in a 24-13 triumph.
Universities from separate conferences will often schedule home-and-home series with the events 2 or 3 or even more years apart. Troy and BSU have chosen to play in back-to-back seasons (in fact, back-to-back openers) which is probably why Vegas is putting weight on last season’s result a large extent.
The Trojans are underdogs at home, with a moneyline of (+340) at BetOnline. Boise is favored to whip the Trojans, with the book offering shorter than (-400) payoff odds. Odds-makers are cognizant of the defense prowess of both schools, however, setting the point spread at a tricky (-10 ½) for the Blue.
An Over/Under line of (50) points, on the other hand, is a little more interesting. It invites the bettor to guess just how much Rypien has grown into the Bronco offense during practice, and whether the offense can produce 30+ points against some of the better D in the south.
Who: Boise State Broncos at Troy Trojans
When: Saturday, September 1st, 6 PM EST
Where: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL
Lines: Boise State (-10 1/2) at Troy (+10 1/2) / O/U Total: (50)
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Neal Brown may have just made the most important head coaching decision he’ll make at Troy all season, announcing today (Monday) who his starter will be against Boise State. Troy could potentially stack up well against BSU in a number of key categories, but they have to be able to pass and operate from center.
Brown steered last season’s squad to a great 11-2 mark and has ample senior talent at receiver including Deondre Douglas and 6’4” athlete Damion Willis. The Troy OL is physical at a mid-range Power-5 level as opposed to a Sun Belt level.
The defense could get even better this time around. Marcus Jones is a terrific prospect at CB. Rypien can’t wait too long for his WRs to get open against Jones, however, because of a Troy pass rush that was 7th in the FBS in ’17. Troy sacked BSU’s quarterbacks 4 times in 2017.
It won’t matter if the Trojans can’t throw a pass, though. Brown has announced that dual-threat junior Kaleb Barker will be given the keys to the offense on Saturday. Barker’s passing and rushing stats have been excellent in limited action. He’s got a chance to spark the squad.
The Broncos are #22 in the preseason Top 25 while Troy is unranked. That means that on TV, Boise’s brand comes with a number next to it while Troy’s does not.
Has it led to any line movement? Indeed. The moneyline odds for Boise have shortened from the mid-minus-300 payoff range into the (-400) column at a lot of sportsbooks, while Troy’s odds-to-win have gotten longer by (+015). Is it time yet again to bet against the public?
Boise should be the pronounced favorite based on the program’s physical brand of defense. Also, I’m not worried about Rypien’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly and avoid sacks. But if Troy shuts down the Blue ground attack early, the Trojans can potentially harass Rypien into a bad rhythm or into making bad choices.
Boise State specializes in finding great tailbacks, and last year’s go-to Cedrick Wilson rushed for over 1500 yards and a Blue program record. But Wilson is gone to the NFL. Alexander Mattison, the swift junior from California, has big shoes to fill.
Mattison has struggled to get it going against good defenses. He did look good in limited carries against Troy, but inconsistency plagued him in a backup role. Mattison ran wild for 200+ yards against CSU, then struggled against Air Force. His stat line from a season-capping series with the Fresno State Bulldogs was meager.
Do I believe Boise State will most likely win this one? Sure. But it’s liable to take a walk through a minefield to do it, in a hostile Alabama venue against a fellow Group of 5 powerhouse. I’m liking Troy ATS so long as the spread stays at (+10 ½) for the Trojans and the vig is standard at (-110). It may be an extremely-tight battle with the road team scraping by in the 4th quarter.
However, the best value is found in wagering against a public consumed by name-brand recognition and polls. Some type of betting line like (+275) for Troy would probably be fair. But the number is (+340) instead. The point spread should be (8) or (7 1/2) IMO.
Kaleb Barker, whose stats from 2017 include an excellent QBR and 20 rushes for nearly 200 yards, could potentially lead Troy to an upset in the friendly confines of Veterans Memorial Stadium. Even if he comes close, Troy-to-cover wins the wager.
Take Troy to cover (+10 1/2) against visiting Boise State.