The no. 21 Miami Hurricanes will hit the road this weekend as they pay a visit to the Toledo Rockets. Kickoff is scheduled for noon EST on Saturday, September 15, at the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio. Fans can watch the game on ESPN2.
Oddsmakers list the Hurricanes as 10-point favorites on the road. Don’t forget to check out a full list of this week’s college football odds.
Miami began the season ranked no. 8 in the polls but dropped significantly after their season-opening loss to LSU. The Hurricanes lost that game 33-17, but the final score made the game seem a little closer than it was. Nevertheless, Miami bounced back in a big way last week by beating Savannah State 77-0. It may have come against an FCS school, but that kind of lopsided win was a sign that Miami still has a chance to be relevant in the ACC and nationally this season.
Toledo, meanwhile, has played just one game all season. The Rockets crushed VMI 66-3 back on September 1, giving them two full weeks to prepare for their home date with the Hurricanes. It’s worth noting that Toledo is usually one of the best teams in the MAC year after year. In fact, the Rockets are the reigning MAC champions, and a lot of people are giving them a chance to repeat in 2018.
Of course, the Hurricanes played Toledo last season. The Rockets led 16-10 at halftime, only to see Miami come storming back in the second half to win 52-30. That game should serve as a reminder for the Hurricanes to not take Toledo lightly. Since the Rockets will be hosting a power conference team for the first time since 2014, the Rockets should be ready to bring their best effort and make a statement in this game.
Toledo is a legitimate opponent, especially on the road, so this does not figure to be an easy game for Miami. However, the same was true last season when Miami struggled a little but eventually pulled away from Toledo. I see this year’s game playing out in a similar fashion. The talent difference between the Hurricanes and the top team in the MAC will become apparent in the 2nd half, allowing Miami to cover the 10-point spread.
The biggest difference between this year’s Toledo team and last year’s Toledo team is at quarterback. Unfortunately for the Rockets, it’s not necessarily an upgrade. Logan Woodside was a three-year starter for Toledo and a genuine difference maker. He was arguably the biggest reason why the Rockets were competitive with Miami last season. However, he’s out of eligibility and it remains to be seen if the Toledo offense can pick up where it left off without him.
Against VMI, the Rockets had Mitchell Guadagni and Eli Peters share duties. Neither had much experience before that game, but since it came against a weak FCS opponent, we can’t draw too many conclusions about Toledo’s two new quarterbacks. That being said, we do know that the Toledo offense has no shortage of weapons. Regardless of who plays quarterback, the Rockets have the kind of playmakers who can challenge Miami’s secondary. Of course, we don’t know if either one of Toledo’s quarterbacks can be a difference maker against the Hurricanes the way Woodside was last season.
The other big question for Toledo is on the offensive line. The Rockets were eventually exposed by Miami’s defensive front last season, and after losing some key pieces over the offseason, it’s unclear if the Rockets can hold up in the trenches against the Hurricanes. With inexperience at the quarterback position, pressure from Miami’s defensive line could be difficult for the Rockets to overcome.
We also have to consider the Toledo defense. The Rockets were middle of the pack in the MAC defensively a year ago. They also failed to keep the Miami offense under wraps for a full 60 minutes when the teams met last season. With a couple of questions about the Toledo offense, the Rockets are going to need a strong effort from their defense if they expect to pull off the upset.
Toledo’s saving grace could be questions about the Miami offense. Quarterback Malik Rosier was just 15 for 35 in the opener against LSU. To be fair, he had some bright moments in the 2nd half and isn’t the only one to blame for the poor performance. However, he could be on a short leash, especially with freshman N’Kosi Perry getting some time and playing well against Savannah State last week. If the Rockets can have some success on defense early in the game, it could throw the Hurricanes off balance for the entire game considering Rosier’s inconsistency last year. That could be the window Toledo needs.
While I expect Toledo to remain competitive, I’d be shocked to see Miami unable to pull away eventually. The Rockets will have to be close to perfect in this game, and even at home, I’m not sure they can match up with the Hurricanes for 60 minutes. I’ll have some faith that the Miami of 2017 will show up and have no trouble covering the 10-point spread.