Two traditional powers both in need of a big win will meet this weekend as the Texas Longhorns play host to the no. 22 USC Trojans. Kickoff is set for 8:00 EST on Saturday, September 15, at Royal Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. The game will be nationally televised on Fox.
Oddsmakers list Texas as 3.5-point favorites at home. Be sure to check out a full list of the Week 3 college football odds.
Texas was bounced from the top-25 after opening their season with a loss against Maryland. The Longhorns overcame an early deficit and entered the 4th quarter with a lead. However, they couldn’t hold that lead, eventually losing 34-29. Fortunately for Texas, they were able to get one in the win column last week against Tulsa. They held a 21-0 lead at halftime but had to withstand a comeback attempt in the 2nd half and barely hung on for the 28-21 win.
Amidst a lot of hype and lofty preseason expectations for Tom Herman’s second year in Austin, the Longhorns have not played all that well early in the season. They haven’t looked anywhere close to a team that can compete for a Big 12 title. However, the Longhorns started slow and came along last year, so perhaps a win over USC can get them moving in the right direction.
The Trojans, meanwhile, have also had some struggles early in the season. In their season opener, USC failed to put away an overmatched UNLV team until the 4th quarter. The Trojans then fell flat on their face last week, losing to Stanford 17-3, immediately putting them behind the 8-ball in the Pac-12 South.
A slow start isn’t entirely surprising for USC. The Trojans are quite young this season and had a number of standout players that need to be replaced. However, there is no shortage of talent on the roster, so there won’t be a lot of patience if USC can’t get things turned around fast after the loss to Stanford.
In addition to the history these two teams share from that memorable title game, the Trojans and Longhorns gave us an entertaining double-overtime thriller last year. Texas committed four turnovers in that game, which turned out to be one too many, as the Trojans survived with a 27-24 win. Of course, that result will only make Texas more determined to secure a win this season on their home turf. However, USC is also looking at this as a must-win game.
It’s tough to make a pick on this game because both teams have the potential to play a lot better than they have early in the season. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to know what team will start to grow up faster from one week to the next. With that in mind, I’ll take my chances with this game being decided by a field goal just like last year’s contest between these teams. That makes it a little easier to lean toward USC and the points.
The biggest question with the Trojans is true freshman quarterback J.T. Daniels, who was no doubt humbled after last week’s game against Stanford. Daniels was just 16 for 34 passing the ball with two interceptions. Obviously, that has to make you wonder if he’s ready to lead the Trojans into Austin and do enough to at least keep USC in the game.
That being said, Daniels certainly has the talent to learn from his mistakes and bounce back this week. I also think the Stanford defense he faced last week is a little better than the Texas defense, which should make things a little easier on him. The Longhorns gave up some big plays in the passing game in their season opener against Maryland, so I wouldn’t discount Daniels and his receivers being able to do the same on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Texas has their own problems at quarterback. Sam Ehlinger gave a fine performance last week against Tulsa. But that wasn’t the case against Maryland, a team with far more talent. He completed just 54% of his passes and threw two interceptions in that game, so I’m not sure how well he’ll fare against the USC defense. Aside from being unable to stop Heisman contender Bryce Love, the Trojans played well defensively against Stanford last week. They should be capable of getting stops against Ehlinger and the Texas offense.
More importantly, the Texas offense was good but not exceptional against a modest Tulsa defense last week. I’m not sold on the Longhorns being a juggernaut offensively against a defense with USC-level talent. Remember, they were up and down against Maryland and also turned the ball over three times, which worries me.
In the end, Texas hasn’t impressed me nearly enough this year for me to swallow 3.5 points. Even with a young and unproven quarterback, the Trojans have enough talent elsewhere on the field to keep this game close. With the line being more than a field goal, the smart play here is to lean toward underdog USC.