It will be a neutral site clash between the Big 12 and the SEC this weekend when the Texas Tech Red Raiders face the Ole Miss Rebels. Kickoff is set for noon EST on Saturday, September 1, at NRG Stadium in Houston. The game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
Texas Tech is currently listed as a 2-point favorite. That’s a significant change after Ole Miss opened as a 1.5-point favorite. There is also an over/under of 68 points. Click here for a full list of Week 1 college football betting odds.
Ole Miss is hoping to find some stability this season after the Hugh Freeze era ended with the Rebels under fire from the NCAA. Matt Luke guided Ole Miss to six wins last season as the interim coach, earning him the job permanently this season. However, the Rebels were banned from going to a bowl game last season and they are will not be allowed to participate in a postseason game this year either. That could make Luke’s job a little more difficult, as he has to keep his team motivated throughout the season.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury could be coaching for his job this season. The Red Raiders have gone to a bowl game in three of the past five years under Kingsbury. However, they’ve failed to make much headway inside the Big 12, finishing in 8th place last year. Texas Tech has not had a winning record in conference play while Kingsbury has been the head coach, and he needs to start winning some big games in order to keep his job.
Obviously, these are two teams that are typically in the bottom half of their respective conferences. But any time teams from the Big 12 and SEC get together at a neutral site, there are conference bragging rights on the line, so both teams should be eager to play this game.
These two teams were almost mirror images of one another last season. Both had no problem scoring points but weren’t always reliable on the defensive side of the field. Both have a chance to show significant improvement on defense this year. However, Ole Miss is a little more settled on offense. That makes me want to lean toward the Rebels, especially now that they’re the underdogs in this matchup.
Last year’s injury to Shea Patterson allowed Jordan Ta’amu to start at quarterback for the Rebels down the stretch. After helping Ole Miss win three of their last four games, Ta’amu is the undisputed starter heading into 2018. He showed great accuracy and just a little bit of mobility last year, so the Rebels should be in good hands.
Perhaps more importantly, Ole Miss returns three quality receivers. A.J. Brown could be the best receiver in the SEC this year. The Rebels also have DaMarkus Lodge and D.K. Metcalf, who both had over 600 yards receiving a year ago. The running game has some question marks after the Rebels lost 1,000-yard rusher Jordan Wilkins. However, Ole Miss is solid at the quarterback position and has a dynamic set of receivers, so I’m not worried about how they’re going to score points this year.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech remains undecided on their opening day quarterback. If Kingsbury knows who his quarterback is, he hasn’t said publicly. It’s still a three-player race, including true freshman Alan Bowman. On top of that uncertainty, the Red Raiders lost four of their top five receivers from a season ago. That’s not going to make it any easier for whatever inexperienced quarterback ends up getting the start against Ole Miss.
The Red Raiders may need their defense to step up if they’re going to beat Ole Miss. Texas Tech actually made strides on defense last year, even if they were still 98th in the country in points allowed. The good news is that they have nine starters coming back, so they should continue to improve. That being said, the Ole Miss passing attack presents a serious challenge for them.
Ole Miss is also hoping to see improvement on defense, as they were gashed time and time again in conference play last season. The Rebels have made a commitment to getting bigger and more physical in the front-7. Whether they have enough of a pass rush to bother Tech’s young quarterbacks remains to be seen. But Ole Miss does have a veteran secondary and should be a little better at defending the run than they were a year ago.
Ultimately, I have a hard time buying that either team’s defense will be much of a difference maker in this game. Meanwhile, I have little doubt that the Ole Miss offense is more capable of scoring than the Texas Tech offense. When all is said and done, the Ole Miss passing attack will be too much for Texas Tech to handle. As slight underdogs in this game, the Rebels will come out on top.