NCAAF Betting Preview & Prediction: Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech

It’ll be an important battle in the Big 12 this week as the no. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys host the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The game will kick off at 7:00 EST on Saturday, September 22, at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Fans will be able to watch the game on FS1.

According to the Week 4 college football odds, the Cowboys are 13-point favorites. That line has already increased after Oklahoma State opened as 11.5-point favorites.

Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech Vegas Game Preview & Betting Odds

The Cowboys had modest expectations coming into the season, but after a 3-0 start, they have catapulted to no. 15 in the polls. Wins over Missouri State and South Alabama were expected, but Oklahoma State was definitely convincing last week when they knocked off Boise State 44-21. 

Former walk-on quarterback Taylor Cornelius has come along nicely, and so the Oklahoma State offense hasn’t missed a beat from the days of Mason Rudolph. It may be early, but the Cowboys look like they could be a possible contender in the Big 12 this year.

Texas Tech is also starting to thrive with a new quarterback, as true freshman Alan Bowman has looked the part of a big-time quarterback early in the season. Bowman has led the Red Raiders to outputs of 77 and 63 points the last two weeks against Lamar and Houston, respectively. 

However, Texas Tech began the season with a loss to Ole Miss, so the Red Raiders are only 2-1. This week’s game also begins a stretch in which the Red Raiders play three straight games against ranked teams. Without an upset along the way, Texas Tech could be 2-4 at midseason, so pulling off a surprise against Oklahoma State this week would be huge for them.

While the all-time series of this rivalry is tied at 21 wins apiece, Oklahoma State has won the Dust Bowl (as it’s affectionally known) against Texas Tech in nine straight years. The Red Raiders haven’t won in Stillwater since 2001, so Texas Tech doesn’t exactly have history on their side if they want to pull off an upset this weekend.

College Football Free Pick Against the Spread: Oklahoma State -13

The line of this game keeps moving up, but not enough for me to change my mind on favoring Oklahoma State. I know both teams are capable of scoring points, but last week’s win against Boise State convinced me that the Cowboys are a more complete team. Even with nearly two touchdowns to cover, I’ll swallow the points and lean toward Oklahoma State. 

Texas Tech may be putting up video game numbers offensively, but I think it’s fair to question their level of competition. I’ll admit that scoring 63 points against Houston was impressive, but that game got out of hand early, and at a certain point, it was difficult for either defense to summon the effort to create much resistance. I also would have figured that Texas Tech could have scored more than 27 points against Ole Miss, especially since they controlled time of possession and didn’t turn it over. The fact that the Red Raiders were so up and down in that game concerns me a little against Oklahoma State.

I’ll concede that the Red Raiders will have their fair share of touchdowns, but it won’t be quite as easy as last week. The Oklahoma State defense did a nice job last week of holding Boise State to a mere 21 points. Boise State has one of the most experienced and accomplished quarterbacks in the country in Brett Rypien. If the Cowboys can hold him to 21 points, they can surely give a true freshman like Bowman some trouble. Keep in mind that Texas Tech has been good but not great running the ball against some porous defenses, so there will be a lot on the shoulders of the young quarterback this week.

Speaking of defense, the Red Raiders have been laughable on that side of the ball this season. If you take away the game against FCS opponent Lamar, Texas Tech has given up 47 and 49 points against their two FBS opponents. Admittedly, Ole Miss and Houston are good offensive teams, but I’m not sure either one should be scoring 40-plus points so easily.

Oklahoma State, on the other hand, has looked exceptional offensively early in the season. They haven’t been challenged much outside of the Boise State game, but I wasn’t sure they’d be able to put up 44 points as easily as they did. The key for the Cowboys is that it’s not all on Cornelius. Running back Justice Hill is averaging better than eight yards per carry. OSU also has a nice contingent of receivers to make life a little easier for the inexperienced Cornelius. With the Cowboys having elite skill players and good balance, the Texas Tech defense could be in a world of trouble this week.

I expect this game to be an entertaining shootout for a while. However, the Oklahoma State defense will eventually be able to make some adjustments and keep the Red Raiders under wraps. I don’t foresee the Texas Tech defense being able to do the same. Ultimately, the Cowboys will get the separation they need to cover the 13-point spread and stay undefeated.

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