The no. 6 Oklahoma Sooners will get the Big 12 portion of their scheduled started with a home game this week against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Game time is at high noon EST on Saturday, September 28 at Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma. The game is being televised nationally on Fox.
Based on our Week 5 college football odds, the Sooners are 26-point favorites at home. The over/under for the game is set at 72 points.
The Sooners had last week off to get ready for conference play, but before that, they looked close to unstoppable in non-conference games. Houston gave them a little bit of a fight the first week of the season. But Oklahoma had no problem blowing out both South Dakota and UCLA on their way to being 3-0.
Of course, the Sooners have their sights set on returning to the College Football Playoff for the third straight season. Given the strength of the SEC, Oklahoma might have to go undefeated if they want to guarantee themselves a top-4 spot. That means the Sooners don’t have much margin for error every time they take the field.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, also had last week off, although they spent the extra week nursing their wounds after losing to Arizona. The Red Raiders, under new coach Matt Wells, had no problem disposing of Montana State and UTEP. But they fell flat in their first big test of the season, losing to Arizona 28-14.
Now the Red Raiders face a long and unforgiving Big 12 schedule. Texas Tech needs at least four wins out of their nine conference games to qualify for a bowl game. That’s far from a given in the Big 12, especially since Texas Tech only has four home games in conference play. On top of that, starting quarterback Alan Bowman is set to miss several weeks because of a shoulder injury he suffered in the Arizona game.
Not surprisingly, Texas Tech has had minimal success against Oklahoma over the years. Tech’s last win over the Sooners came in 2011, giving Oklahoma seven straight wins over the Red Raiders. For what it’s worth, Texas Tech has stayed competitive with Oklahoma when playing at home, including a 51-46 game last year. But their last couple of trips to Norman have blowouts.
This is a lot of points for Oklahoma to cover against another Big 12 team. But the Red Raiders seem like they’re going to have some growing pains under their new head coach. Playing without their starting quarterback also makes it less likely that Texas Tech will keep up in a shootout. That might be their only way to keep this game close. I’ll look for the Sooners to pull away in the second half and ultimately cover the 26 points.
In fairness, the jury is still out on the Texas Tech defense, which is actually a compliment. Wells figures to pay more attention to that side of the ball than Kliff Kingsbury did in recent years. It’s not out of the question for the Red Raiders to have a good game plan on that side of the ball and show some resistance. On the other hand, they were shredded on the ground against Arizona, which doesn’t bode well for their chances of standing up to Oklahoma.
More importantly, there’s no question that the Sooners are one of the most potent offensive teams in the country. It’s worth noting that they haven’t played a quality defensive team this year. But we can’t ignore that Jalen Hurts looks right at home in the Oklahoma offense. Through three games, he’s completed over 80% of his passes and thrown nine touchdown passes with no interceptions.
As a runner, Hurts has been just as impressive. He’s Oklahoma’s leading rusher by over 100 yards and is averaging close to 10 yards per in addition to finding the end zone four times. Usually, it’s a small red flag if the quarterback is a team’s leading rusher. But it’s likely because the Sooners are rotating their backfield between Trey Sermon, Kennedy Brooks, and Rhamondre Stevenson. That gives them plenty of options to throw at a leaky Texas Tech run defense.
As mentioned, the Red Raiders could struggle offensively with Bowman unavailable. The good news is that backup Jett Duffey has a fair amount of experience, so it’s not as if Texas Tech is throwing a young quarterback to the wolves. Duffey had some positive moments last season, but he was also wildly inconsistent. Against Oklahoma last season, he was just 9 for 17 passing the ball for 139 yards. He’s more effective as a runner, but that may not be enough to keep up with Oklahoma if the Texas Tech defense can’t get stops.
If Bowman were available, the Red Raiders would have a better chance of making this a competitive game. But Duffey isn’t a good enough passer to consistently lead the Red Raiders into the end zone. Meanwhile, the Sooners are likely to push toward the 50-point mark, which should allow them to cover the 26-point spread.