Starting with the odds isn’t the worst tactic, even as effective as college football line-forecasting can be. The Vegas odds allow the household handicapper to look for angles, trying to “rule out” why certain results that the bookie expects are likely to actually happen.
Texas A&M is a (-6) point spread favorite at home against the 13th-ranked Kentucky Wildcats. College football bookies have the visitors at (+190) on the moneyline compared to a big old whopping (-220) to cement the hosts as Vegas favorites.
The Over/Under is (51), a cautious number in a sense, yet higher than some SEC scrums will turn out to be wagered on this season.
Clearly, the potential of another mispriced “underdog” looms. The most badly-mispriced lines tend to make you rub your eyes, wash your face, and look again to make sure you’re not seeing things. As for the odds on this Saturday night’s scrum in College Station?
I asked my roommate to read Kentucky’s odds and point spread out loud. Twice.
Who: Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M Aggies
When: Saturday, October 6th, 7 PM EST
Where: Kyle Field, College Station, TX
Lines: UK (+6) at Texas A&M (-6) / O/U Total: (51)
Florida showed how good it can be on Saturday. Guess who went to The Swamp (TM) and beat them? This year’s Kentucky Wildcats won on the road against the Gators by the capital score of 27-16, rushing for over 300 yards. Since the UK loss have out-scored opponents 108-37. The more Florida wins, the better Kentucky looks.
The dominant UK defense stars with linebacker Josh Allen. His ability to be disruptive from anywhere along the defensive front opens up things in ways never before-seen on Kentucky Bluegrass. Matt Miller’s latest NFL Draft board ranks Allen as the 28th best NFL prospect in college football.
Kentucky coach Mark Stoops has described Allen as “dominant” and the best outside rusher he’s ever coached. The crushing LB plays on a defense for which 5 players have interceptions and 8 more have defended passes. It’s not just a dominant front-7.
We’ve seen defenses go way up and down this season, however, defending the run well on one Saturday and letting runners through the turnstiles this week. What are the chances that A&M could over-achieve at home once again and take down the Wildcats as Vegas expects?
The last time these teams met in College Station in 1952, the victorious Wildcats were carried off the field on the shoulders of Texas A&M cadets.
It was a tradition of honoring the opponents that today’s student sections couldn’t come close to relating to. It might get a little hostile for UK in Aggie country this Saturday.
Jimbo Fisher’s new Aggie squad is shaping up to look like an SEC team coached by Jimbo Fisher. That’s the good news, but there have also been some growing pains. The team is scoring 53.5 points per game against non-P5 opponents, but in 3 games against Power-5 teams the unit is only scoring 24.3 points. Sophomore QB Kellen Mond has looked both electric and confused at times.
Against Clemson, Mond threw for 430 yards and 3 scores, yet in last week’s win over Arkansas, he threw for only 201 yards and 2 costly interceptions. His play is still a significant improvement over his performance last year – in 5 games, he’s thrown for nearly as many yards as he did in 10 games last season. This team is coming along under Fisher.
A&M’s record (3-2, 1-1 in SEC play) isn’t great, but their play speaks more highly of them than the standings indicate. The Aggies’ 2 losses come to Clemson and Alabama, at the time the #2 and #1 teams in the country. Alabama is still unbeaten and at #1.
Against Clemson, the Aggies rallied back from 28-13, scoring the game’s final 2 touchdowns in a 28-26 loss. Their 23 points against the Crimson Tide are the most anyone has scored against Alabama thus far. Fisher and his developing contender are not to be taken lightly.
So how can the Aggies get better? In the 2 losses to Clemson and Alabama, Kellen Mond has been Texas A&M’s leading rusher. The Aggies need to get more out of junior RB Trayveon Williams, who ran for only 62 yards combined against Clemson and Alabama, but 520 yards in the 3 wins. TE Jace Sternberger makes an impact over the middle, but it’s all a moot point if you can’t block the best D-lines.
Texas A&M’s offensive line is disciplined and well-coached. But the Aggies appear to be hitting a wall against bigger, stronger front-7s.
Though the efficiency of mid-tier and low-tier SEC quarterbacks has been rightfully questioned over the past few years, the linemen and linebackers of the Southeastern Conference have remained college football’s best. If your OL can open holes against everybody but elite defenses, then that means you’re good enough to block pretty good SEC opponents, but not good enough to block elite front-7s and blitzing safeties. Eye in the sky don’t lie.
I’m calling Kentucky my point-spread lock of the young conference season. (6) points are way too many. The true chances are a pick-em here.