Kevin Sumlin’s Texas A&M Aggies might still be in recovery mode after 2 shaky performances to begin the season – including the program’s epic 4th-quarter collapse against UCLA in the opener. But the squad put on its best face in beating Louisiana-Lafayette last Saturday, 45-21.
Arkansas might be headed in the opposite direction after losing to TCU 28-7 in a miserable performance last weekend. The Razorbacks had just over 250 yards of total offense against a team from the Big 12 – not exactly known for great defense – while also fumbling twice and giving up 3 sacks.
But when it comes to fierce conference rivalries, is it better to forget all of that and focus on the tale of the tape? Sports books apparently think so, setting an extremely tight point spread for the battle.
Who: Texas A&M Aggies vs Arkansas Razorbacks
When: Saturday, September 23rd, 12 PM EST
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington TX (Neutral site)
Lines: Texas A&M (-3) vs Arkansas (+3) / O/U Total: (55)
Kellen Mond was forced into his first start at QB last weekend when Aggie starter Jake Hubenak went down with a shoulder injury. Mond played quite well for a freshman, going 21-of-34 for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Hubenak has been listed as questionable for the Arkansas game, casting any potential betting value ATS into uncertainty. But A&M, currently ranked a dismal 122nd in the FBS against the pass, will welcome other recovering starters back into the fold. Linebacker Otaro Alaka will play, along with running back Trayveon Williams and offensive lineman Connor Lanfear.
Unfortunately for Coach Sumlin, 4 new starters in the defensive secondary are not available.
Can the Razorbacks take advantage of soft coverage and blown assignments? Probably not. Arkansas QB Austin Allen is struggling, going a horrible 9-of-23 against TCU. Only 3 Arkansas receivers have caught more than 3 balls from Allen, and even a healthy rushing attack – and a powerful defense that gives its offense field position – hasn’t been enough to help get the passing game cranked up.
Even worse for Allen, this may be a “neutral” site game on paper, but Arlington is not a long voyage for rabid A&M fans who will make life miserable for the signal-caller on 3rd down.
There is too much uncertainty at QB for either team to hold value as a pick to cover the spread. However, under (55) points is looking juicy.
If Hubenak plays, he won’t be 100%. If Mond plays, he might find sledding a little rough against a much better defense and scouting staff from the SEC compared to easy-sailing against the MAC. On the other side, Allen looks almost completely hapless to generate any type of quick-strike offense.
It will be a good game, but these 2 teams simply aren’t in position to produce 50-60 points or more. Look for a slow, plodding contest and a winning play on the under.