The second year of the Jeremy Pruitt era begins for the Tennessee Volunteers with a home game against the Georgia State Panthers. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 EST on Saturday, August 31, at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee. Fans can watch the game on ESPNU.
According to the Week 1 odds, the Volunteers are favored by 25.5 points. The over/under for the game is set for 57.5 points.
For some people, Tennessee exceeded expectations in Pruitt’s first season by going 5-7. To be fair, few expected much from the Vols in 2018, as it was clearly a program that had a long way to go. But despite missing out on a bowl game, Tennessee ended up beating both Auburn and Kentucky when both teams were ranked, showing that they have enough talent to be a competitive team in the SEC.
Of course, those wins have only field expectations heading into the 2019 campaign. Making a bowl game is likely the minimum that Pruitt will have to achieve in his second season in Knoxville. Such a goal is certainly within reach. But it’s vital that the Volunteers make a good first impression in their season opener and take care of business against a lesser team.
As for Georgia State, it’s certainly been a whirlwind for the program since they made the jump to the FBS level in 2013. In 2017, head coach Shawn Elliott took over a team that went 3-9 the previous season and led them to a 7-5 season that included the program’s first-ever bowl victory.
However, that success was short-lived. Last season, the Panthers suffered through a 2-10 campaign, taking a huge step backward. Only one of those two wins came against another FBS opponent and only two of the 10 losses came by single digits, meaning Georgia State has a lot of ground to make up in 2019. The Panthers face an uphill battle to get back to a bowl game this year. It doesn’t help that they start the season by visiting an SEC team that has something to prove.
Is Tennessee ready to dominate a lesser team enough to cover a spread that’s nearly four touchdowns? Honestly, I have some doubts. However, Georgia State was every bit as bad as their record indicated last season. I also think the Volunteers have just enough talent to put away a team like that. I’ll put some of my concerns aside and lean toward Tennessee to win and cover.
One thing that plays to Tennessee’s advantage is that they have an experienced quarterback in Jarrett Guarantano. He hasn’t exactly been a standout player during his time at Tennessee. But he was also a young quarterback pressed into duty. The Vols have added offensive coordinator Jim Chaney during the offseason, and there aren’t many in the industry with a better resume than Chaney. I think he’ll be good for Guarantano and start to get the best out of him, especially against a weaker opponent.
Moreover, I like some of the skill players Tennessee has this season. Ty Chandler gives them a solid running back with big-play ability. I also think with better quarterback play, Marquez Callaway can emerge into an All-SEC-caliber receiver. On the other hand, there are concerns about the offensive line, even with a couple of top-notch freshmen coming into the fray. However, that should be less of an issue against Georgia State.
That’s because the best asset the Tennessee offense will have in the season opener is the Georgia State defense. The Panthers were downright atrocious defensively last season, largely due to their youth and inexperience. The Georgia State defense will return nine starters this year, but if there’s an improvement, it’ll likely come later in the season. It will take time for that unit to come together, especially since the Panthers won’t match up physically against Tennessee.
My biggest concern with regard to eating the points in this game is that Georgia State returns quarterback Dan Ellington. He’s an exceptional talent who can beat defenses with both his arm and his legs. However, I don’t think his supporting cast is good enough to allow Ellington to reach his potential. That’s part of the reason why his completion percentage was under 60% last season and why he was the team’s leading rusher.
Meanwhile, the biggest weakness on the Tennessee defense is a defensive line that endured heavy losses since last season. However, even a young Tennessee defensive line will still have the size and physicality to get the better of Georgia State’s offensive line. If the Panthers can’t win at the line of scrimmage, it’ll make things more difficult for Ellington, who will be throwing the ball into a talented Tennessee secondary that should be the strength of the defense this year.
Ultimately, I think Georgia State will be much-improved from last year’s 2-10 record. But they’re still a far cry from an SEC program, even a rebuilding one. Again, I don’t like having to eat this many points for a team that was 5-7 last year, but I think the Vols are just good enough to cover the 25.5-point spread.